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The After-Hours Trading Community
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Posted by Brooks McFeely on Thu, May 08, 2008 @ 09:04 AM
We talked about Crocs (CROX) during yesterday's MidnightTrader Pro webinar. Another great quarter and another slam dunk for an after-hours buy. We know from historical reactions - as reported in the Earnings Notebook coverage - that this stock consistently adds significantly to gains the next day following earnings related after-hours gains.
After the close yesterday, Crocs (CROX) reported Q1 revs of $198.5 mln, ahead of the Thomson First
Call consensus of $197 mln. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.09 per share, a penny
shy of the Street view.
For the year, the company expects revenue growth between 15% and
20% over 2007 levels. Ex a charge, EPS is seen in the range of $1.70 to
$1.80 per share. The Street is at 19% revenue growth and earnings of
$1.60 per share.
For Q2, the company guided for revenue to increase about 10% to 15%
over Q2 last year. Ex a charge, EPS is seen in the range of $0.45 to
$0.50 per share. The Street is at 12% revenue growth and EPS of $0.43
per share. All looked good here last night and still does ahead of the open. Now the question is how far CROX will rise today. Again, using history as a guide, traders can expect a 10-12% additional gain in today's regular session from the after-hours close. If you let it run, you might consider a tight stop to pretect these lofty gains.
Posted by Brooks McFeely on Mon, May 05, 2008 @ 08:01 AM
Google (GOOG) shares have been on a strait upward trajectory since it's earnings annoucment a couple weeks ago. What else could propel the stock back to the $700 range you ask? Try a failed Microsoft (MSFT) bid for Yahoo (YHOO). With Google already light years ahead of both companies combined in online search and related products, the failed combination results in a tremendously weakened competitive landscape for Google.
Yahoo executives passed on a $33 a share offer from the PC softward giant, a roughly $5 billion increase from its previous offer. The company was looking for something in the $37 range. Following our earlier coverage of buying activity in Google this morning thorugh our premium service, early traders in the pre-market this morning are viewing the news correctly (in our view) and getting positioned ahead of the opening bell. Google last traded at $604, well above its $581.29 close on Friday.
By the way, Yahoo is setting up for a nice pre-market short trade. Use the Event Window tool within the subscriber section to see how Yahoo has reacted to similar news in the past .
Posted by Brooks McFeely on Fri, May 02, 2008 @ 09:14 AM
Not surprisingly, shares of Digital River (DRIV) have added significantly to the earnings related gains posted after-hours last night. Yesterday after the close the company reported Q1 revs of $103.6 mln, better than the
Thomson First Call consensus of $99 mln. Non-GAAP earnings were $0.50
per share, a penny better than expectations.
For Q2, co. sees revs of $91 mln and EPS of $0.33 per share, vs.
the Street view of $91 mln in revs and earnings of $0.38 per share.
For the full year 2008, co. sees revs of $401 mln and earnings of
$1.89 per share, vs. the analyst consensus of $395 mln in revs and
earnings of $1.90 per share. As we reported in yesterday's Earnings Notebook report, shares of DRIV have a tendency to extend after-hours gains or losses the next day following earnings announcements. Today being no different than what we've seen in the past, the stock has doubled the gains from last night into the pre-market session this morning. Over the last three quarters, DRIV has significantly widened its
evening, earnings-driven share move during the next day's regular
session.
On Jan. 31, 2008, the stock fell 11.2% during evening trading after
DRIV issues disappointing guidance. The stock tumbled 18.2% the next
day.
On Oct. 25, 2007, the stock gained 7.5% during evening trading
after the company meets with Q3 EPS and beats with revenue. The gain
was 11.4% the next day.
On July 26, 2007, DRIV dipped 0.8% in night trade after about
meeting Q2 expectations but forecasting Q3 to fall below Street views.
Shares fell further the next day to close the regular session down
4.6%. Shares last traded at $36.25 ahead of the open. Best way to play this is to take profits on the opening surge and keep a tight trailing stop to preserve the gains should the surge falter in the opening minutes.
Posted by Brooks McFeely on Wed, Apr 30, 2008 @ 08:34 AM
After the closing bell yesterday, NetLogic (NETL) reported Q1 revenue of $34.2 mln, matching the Thomson
First Call consensus. Non-GAAP earnings were $0.38 per share, a nickel
better than the Street view.
The stock has put up five wider next-day share moves following its last seven quarterly earnings-driven evening moves. Clearly, a strong performer on similar earnings news in the past. Traders may want to look at the $29.20- $29.50 area as a buy entry price in the pre-market session to take advatange of likely additional gains in today's regular session. Using history as a guide, we have seen this stock increase gains or losses from the after-hours to the following regular session pretty consistantly.
On Jan. 29, the stock finished just firmer, up 0.4%, after the
company meets with Q4 results. The stock jumped 10.5% the next day.
On Oct. 24, 2007, NETL declined 6.5% in after-hours trade after
beating on Q3 earnings expectations and posting revenue in line with
estimates. The declines went deeper south to 15.7% by the close of the
Oct. 25 regular session.
On July 24, 2007, the stock gained 4.7% in evening trading after
reporting just ahead of the Street view. The stock reversed to close
down 0.8% the next day.
On April 26, 2007, shares marched up 8.7% in evening trading after
reporting about in line with Q1. The gain was more than halved to 3.5%
the next day.
On Jan. 24, 2007, the stock gained 2.5% in the evening hours after
as EPS is reported ahead though revs miss. The stock was up 9.1% the
next day.
On Oct, 25, 2006, the stock dropped 10.1% after the bell after reporting in line. The loss fattened to 22.4% the next day.
On July 26, 2006, shares fell 5.9% in the evening hours following a
report of mostly in line results. The stock fell 9.1% the next day. Don't worry if you miss this one, many more earnings related trading opportunities to come this week.
Posted by Brooks McFeely on Mon, Apr 28, 2008 @ 08:17 AM
Despite what appears to be lofty levels for this stock ahead of the opening bell, shares of Sohu.com (SOHU) are likely to rise further in regular session trading. Using history as a guide, the stock tends to increase gains in the regular session following earnings related price gains in the pre-market. The stock rose to a high of $71.25 in the pre-market session this morning following the company's better than extected Q1 earnings report. The company reports Q1 revs of $84.8 mln, well ahead of the Thomson
First Call consensus of $69 mln. Non-GAAP earnings were $0.64, well
ahead of expectations of $0.37.
For Q2, co. sees revs between $93 and $96 mln, better than expectations of $77 mln. The stock looks attractive in the $70's ahead of the opening bell for aggressive traders.
Posted by Brooks McFeely on Fri, Apr 18, 2008 @ 08:19 AM
ImClone (IMCL) is among the most actively traded stocks in pre-market
action, generating upside after Morgan Stanley suggested ImClone's
Erbitux cancer treatment could pose stiff competition against
Genentech's Avastin lung cancer treatment.
Also adding to ImClone's upside this morning is a report from
Genentech finding that while its Avastin improved progression free
survival in patients with non-small cell lung cancer it did not prolong
their overall survival.
Genentech shares are down 2% at 70.31 in pre-market trade, but the
top morning bid stands at 70.53, an indication the stock may see some
near term bounce.
Posted by Brooks McFeely on Thu, Apr 17, 2008 @ 04:10 PM
Google (GOOG) spells relief for the tech sector as it is surging higher follwoing its earnings report after the bell this evening. Google reports Q1 revenue, ex Traffic Acquisition Costs, of $3.7
bln, better than the Thomson First Call consensus of $3.6 bln. Non-GAAP
EPS was $4.84 per share, better than Street estimates of $4.52 per
share. It's up, up and away for the tech sector tonight and tomorrow. Don't wait till the open to pick up your favorite tech stock. As for Google, take a look at the MidnightTrader Forecast Report to get some insight on how to play it tonight.
Posted by Brooks McFeely on Thu, Apr 17, 2008 @ 10:18 AM
The semiconductor sector is one to watch in the after-hours following Intel’s (INTC) better than expected earnings and explosive surge after the bell Tuesday. The next headliner in this sector is Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) which is expected to report Q1 results tonight after the close. The Thomson FC mean is for a loss of $0.51 per share on $1.5 billion in revenue.
AMD is favoring a narrowing trend in the near-term, with three narrowing events in the last four quarters; the exception coming in the most recent quarter. Over the long-term, AMD favors a narrowing pattern, either cutting back or reversing its evening trade nine times in the last 15 events, and seeing flat trade between the sessions in another instance.
On Jan. 17, 2008, the stock gained 4.3% during evening trading after AMD reported a sales miss. The gain swelled to 11.5% the next day.
On Oct. 18, 2007, AMD clawed 0.3% higher in after-hours trade after beating Q3 expectations. It couldn't hold on to this slight gain and closed the Oct. 19 regular session with a deep 5.1% decline.
On July 19, 2007, AMD jumped 4.5% in after-hours trade after beating Q2 revenue expectations. It lost that gain the following day, ending the July 20 regular session down 1.7%.
On April 19, 2007, the stock was up 0.8% after revenues decline vs a year ago and the company guides for revs in line to up slightly. Shares ended down 1.4% the next day.
On January 23, 2007, AMD dropped 4.3% in night trade after beating Q4 sales estimates but guiding Q1 below Street views. Shares tumbled further the next day, ending the regular session down 8.4%.
History indicates a trade against the trend after-hours this evening is the best play. In other words, the stock tends to over react in the after-hours following its earnings relative to the following day's regular session close.
Posted by Brooks McFeely on Fri, Apr 11, 2008 @ 08:33 AM
The sellers are dominant in active pre-open trading on the heels of an earnings report from mega blue chip General Electric (GE).
As reported by MidnightTrader.com a few minutes ago: GE reports Q1 EPS of $0.44 per share, below Street
expectations of $0.51 pe share. Revenue was $42.2 bln, worse than the
Street view of $43.6 bln.
The company lowered its full year EPS guidance to a range of $2.20 to $2.30 per share, below the Street view of $2.43 per share.
Q2 EPS is seen at $0.53 to $0.55 per share, vs. expectations of $0.58 per share. Traders have sold off shares in early trading to $32.60, a level not seen since June, 2006. Using history as a guide, it may be time to take advantage of the fear. GE is recently favoring a narrowing trend between the sessions, cutting
back its pre-market earnings-driven percentage performance in the
following regular session in three of the last four quarters.
On Jan. 18, 2008, GE advanced 2.3% in pre-market trade after
meeting Q4 expectations and maintaining its 2008 guidance largely in
line with the Street view. The stock added to its upside in the
following regular session, gaining 3.3% by the closing bell.
On Oct. 12, 2007, GE lost 1.5% in pre-market trade after the
company met Q3 earnings expectations, beat on sales and guided for its
Q4 and full year earnings in line with the Street view. The stock saw
its declines reverse slightly during the regular session, closing out
that day's trade down 1.3%.
On July 13, 2007, GE advanced 1.6% in pre-market trade after the
company beat by a penny on earnings and set forward guidance in line
with expectations. It narrowed its upside in that day's regular
session, rising 1.2%.
On April 13, 2007, GE gained 1.1% in pre-market activity after
reporting quarterly results that matched estimates and setting its
outlook in a range that straddled the Street view. The stock saw its
upside cut back between the regular session bells as GE ended the day
with a 0.5% gain. It isn't easy going long with so much negative sentiment out there, but therein lies the reward.
Posted by Brooks McFeely on Thu, Apr 10, 2008 @ 08:58 AM
Broad based selling in the retail sector ahead of the opening bell this morning is likely to be a drag on the Dow throughout today's trading session. The weaker than expected results from Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) after the close Wednesday ignited the selling with additional enthusiasm to the downside being generated by poor same store sales results from other leading retailers in this morning's pre-market:
J.C. Penney (JCP) March Comp Store Sales Decrease 12.3% -
Off 1% in Light Pre-Market Trade.
Kohl's (KSS) March Comp Store Sales Decreased 15.5%, Guides
Q1 EPS Below Street - Stock Down 3%.
Target's (TGT) March Comp Store Sales Decreased 4.4% - Stock
Off 2% in First Light-Volume Pre-Market Matches.
American Eagle's (AEO) March Same Store Sales Decrease 12%,
Cuts Earnings Outlook - Down 4% in Pre-Bell.
Bed Bath & Beyond declined 5.6% (at 27.80) in Wednesday's
after-hours session after missing Q4 revenue expectations and setting
its forward earnings guidance below the Street consensus.
BBBY reported Q4 EPS of $0.66 vs a with-items $0.72 per share a year earlier and just beating the Thomson FC mean for $0.65.
Sales were approximately $1.933 billion, a decrease of
approximately 3.1% from the year-ago period. The Street looked for
$1.96 billion. Comparable store sales decreased by approximately 0.4%
compared with an increase of approximately 5.2% a year earlier.
Assuming no significant change in the macroeconomic environment,
the company estimates that its fiscal 2008 EPS will decline from a low
double digit percentage to a mid teens percentage from the $2.10 per
diluted share reported for fiscal 2007. This estimate is based, in
part, upon the assumption that the comparable store sales for all of
fiscal 2008 will be relatively flat to slightly negative. The Street is
at $2.14.
For the fiscal first quarter, the company estimates earnings to be
approximately $0.26 to $0.30 per share. The Street is at $0.36.
BBBY popped to a brief early evening high of 29.72 before sellers
converged on the issue and punched it down through the 28.70 level to
its session low of 27.66. It firmed off this bottom, rising from 27.72
to a mid-session high of 28.49. BBBY spent much of its second-half
evening action dropping back from 28.40 to 27.87.
The stock looks to have potential for a pre-market open Thursday near 28 to 27.80.
BBBY is just maintaining a widening pattern between the sessions,
demonstrating a historically signifiant pattern of exteneded earnings report related losses from the after-hours to the following regular session close. On the short side, a decent ceiling
developed this evening surrounding 28.40, perhaps an area to nibble at
a downside play back to 28.20 or 28.
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MidnightTrader, Inc. is the leading provider of after-hours and pre-market stock trading news, charts, quotes, alerts, personal finance, and stock market information available. MidnightTrader journalists are subject to the MidnightTrader Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests. MidnightTrader 2008, All Rights Reserved
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