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Posted by Brooks McFeely on Tue, Jul 22, 2008 @ 11:35
There has never been a better time to find earnings event related trading opportunities. In both up and down markets there are some great trading opportunities during earnings season. No better time than now to listen to how to best take advantage of earnings season trades while the markets are underwater.
Please join us today (Tuesday, July 22) at 4:30 p.m. EST for a free online seminar on finding earnings event related trading
opportunities. Using prior analysis of historical price action data in the pre,
post and regular trading day surrounding a stock's earnings news, we're able to
predict how stocks are likely to react in their earnings season and by how much
and in what direction. In a nutshell we've turned earnings events into trading
opportunities. Find out more about this powerful service by attending this FREE
webinar.
REGISTER HERE In today's seminar we'll cover the art of earnings event trading and show you how real-time stock news can help in identifying and trading these events each quarter. Hope to see you there!
Posted by Brooks McFeely on Mon, Jul 21, 2008 @ 08:40
The weather on Wall Street
is sultry, but the mood is sunny after Bank of America Corp. reported a
bigger-than-expected quarterly profit. Investors are hoping that the latest
earnings beat by a big financial services company means the sector is finally stabilizing,
and stock futures are pointing higher.
The dollar is down against an index of major currencies. U.S. Treasuries are
mostly flat.
Oil prices are up after talks on Iran's nuclear program ended in a stalemate,
and the market is greeting the Yucatan-bound tropical storm with a resounding,
"Hello, Dolly!"
On a relatively light day for economic news, the Chicago Fed is releasing its
national activity index.
Swiss drug company Roche (RHHBY) has offered to buy the remaining outstanding shares of
U.S. partner Genentech (DNA) for nearly $44 billion.
Citigroup (C) says Vice Chairman Michael Klein has left to pursue other
opportunities, the latest of many executives to leave since Vikram Pandit
became CEO.
This just in: Yahoo YHOO) has announced a settlement with activist shareholder Carl
Icahn in their proxy battle.
Posted by Cassie Slane on Fri, Jul 18, 2008 @ 03:25 PM
Bullish investors got their relief rally last week after losses from financial companies proved to be not as bad as many analysts were predicting. However, the Nasdaq didn't partake in the rally after Google Inc. (GOOG) and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) disappointed investors with their quarterly results.
The Nasdaq may make up some of its lost ground this week as we hear results from a number of technology heavy-hitters including Apple Inc. (AAPL), Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) , Baidu.com Inc. (BIDU), and Amazon.com (AMZN).
On Monday, financial results continue to trickle in from American Express Co. (AXP) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC), but the one to watch is Apple Inc. Apple shares fell to their lowest level since April on Friday after Sony Ericsson's quarterly profit tumbled 97% and it said that it sees challenging times ahead. Analysts are expecting Apple to report a 17% increase in quarterly profit to $1.08 per share on revenue of $7.36 billion. In the near-term, the performance is firm in a narrowing or reversing trend, cutting back its evening performance in next day trade in the last three of four quarters. On April 23, Apple fell 0.7% in after-hours trade after beating on Q2 but setting Q3 earnings guidance below the analyst consensus. The stock reversed the next day, ending higher by 3.7%.
All eyes will be on Yahoo on Tuesday after the market closes. Shares have been quite volatile over the past few months as talks of a deal with Microsoft fizzled, resulting in attempts by Carl Icahn to oust the current Board of Directors. This is a stock that longs need to be wary of. Yahoo is mixed in the near-term, widening once, narrowing twice, and reversing course once between the sessions in the last four quarters. The longer-term trend is mixed as well, with eight narrower, one reversing, and seven wider next-day moves. On April 22, Yahoo rose 0.5% in after-hours trading after beating on Q1. Shares reversed course the following day, ending lower by 1.6%.
Baidu.com is set to release its second quarter results after the bell Wednesday. Again, another stock for longs to be wary of going into the regular session. The stock shows a tendency to narrow or reverse its next-day share move following its post-earnings share performance in the preceding evening session. It's done so eight times and widened three times in the quarters we've tracked. Near term, it's narrowed its move for three of the last four quarters; it widened last quarter.
Amazon.com, Inc. will also report after the close on Wednesday. The stock has been one of the more consistent session-to-session performers within MidnightTrader.com's earnings database. The stock has compiled wider next-day closing levels following 15 of its last 17 after-hours earnings events. The near-term events strongly favor the widening trend, crossing more aggressive next-day trade in five of its last quarters.
On Thursday, Level 3 Communications (LVLT) may be a nice stock to play if you are going long. The issue is favoring a widening pattern between the sessions, seeing eight wider moves, four narrowing events and one trade where the stock did not hit any extended-hours matches. In the near-term, it is firm in a widening trend, doing so in five of the last six quarterly earnings events. On April 23, shares jumped 17.7% in pre-market trading after its Q1 revenue beat but earnings missed by a penny a share. The stock widened in the regular session to finish up 22.8%.
Tags: pre-market, extended-hours, Nasdaq, BAC, YHOO, MSFT, earnings, AAPL, goog, after-hours, Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, Dow, dow jones industrial average, S&P 500, Level 3 Communications, LVLT, Apple Inc., Apple, Bank of America, Baidu.com, BIDU, AMZN, Amazon.com, American Express, AXP, longs, trading
Posted by Brooks McFeely on Fri, Jul 18, 2008 @ 09:13
In heavy after-hours trading last night, shares of Internet giant Google (GOOG) dropped sharply following it's dissapointing Q2 EPS. The stocked finished the after-hours session at $492 or roughly 7.5%. Revenue, excluding Traffic Acquisition Costs
(TAC), was $3.9 bln, better than the Wall Street consensus of $3.87
bln. Earnings were $4.63 per share, below the Street view of $4.74 per
share. After-hours traders took advantage of the decline to go long after we issued an Earnings Notebook report showing that Google leans toward a narrowing pattern between the sessions in its
long-term performance, typically cutting back its post-earnings evening share
direction in next-day trade. The best way to play this one in the pre-market and today's regular session is to buy near $470, the bottom end of last night's trading range and take profits near the top end at $503. In this market environment, short-term trading helps reduce market exposure and therefore risk.
Posted by Brooks McFeely on Wed, Jul 16, 2008 @ 08:29
Shares of First Solar (FSLR) are runnning higher in pre-market trading. The company announced two solar project deals with Southern California Edison. With shares up 4% to $288 in pre-open trade, investors can expect addition gains in the regular session.
In six of the most recent major pre-market price moves we've followed over the last
year, FSLR has seen its morning move widen in the same
direction in five follow-on regular sessions. In other words, the stock tends to extend it's move in the same direction in the regular session following a pre-market gain. Most of the extended-hours activity in this stock tends to result from an analyst rating change. Here is a look back at some history which tells a pretty good story. 6/23/08 Pre-Market: gain to 274.90; 6/23/08 Regular Session: +7.3% at 288 - Lehman Bros. raised price target.
5/9/08 Pre-Market: +2.5% at 282.70; 5/9/08 Regular Session: +3.2% at 284.50 - Citigroup starts coverage with a Buy rating.
12/17/07 Pre-Market: +1.3%; 12/17/07 Regular Session: +2% - UBS starts with new Buy rating.
8/20/07 Pre-Market: +4.4%; 8/20/07 Regular Session: +9.9% - Deutsche Bank upgrades to Buy from Hold.
8/16/07 Pre-Market: up fractionally; 8/16/07 Regular Session: -8.3% - Lazard upgrade to Buy.
7/10/07 Pre-Market: -1.9%; 7/10/07 Regular Session: -3.5% - Lazard Capital downgrade to Hold from Buy. Still room to rise for pre-market traders looking for a trading opportunity. Memebers should login to access the real-time feed to get this information sooner in the future.
Posted by Brooks McFeely on Tue, Jul 15, 2008 @ 08:58
The
government's plans to stabilize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could only
temporarily distract Wall Street from its longstanding jitters about the
financial sector. Stock futures are pointing down as investors fret over
IndyMac's collapse last week and worry about the future of other banks.
With that sort of backdrop, the appearances of Fed chief Ben Bernanke,
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and SEC Chairman Christopher Cox before the
Senate Banking Committee should be interesting, to say the least.
The
dollar has hit a record low against the euro and is down against an index of
major currencies. Gold and U.S. Treasuries, on the other hand, are doing pretty
well as some of the favored destinations in the flight to safety.
Oil
prices are higher even as some production has started up again in Nigeria, with
support coming from the weakening dollar, tensions over Iran's nuclear program,
and a gathering storm in the Atlantic.
The data deluge has resumed, with
retail sales, the producer price index, business inventories and the New York
Fed's Empire State Manufacturing survey on tap today.
General Motors is
making another major restructuring announcement.
And now back to the
financial sector. The Wall Street Journal says the Securities and Exchange
Commission is subpoenaing more than 50 hedge fund advisers in an investigation
of whether individuals spread false rumors to manipulate shares of Lehman
Brothers and Bear Stearns.
Meanwhile, the New York Post says Lehman is
exploring ways to go private.
Posted by Cassie Slane on Fri, Jul 11, 2008 @ 12:02 PM
Inflation and earnings will be on the mind of investors in the coming days after stocks took a step deeper into Bear territory last week on anticipation of more write-downs for financial companies and fears that the government will be forced to rescue Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). General Electric Co.'s (GE) earnings meet failed to break stocks out of their downward spiral.
Earnings get into full swing this week with investors closely awaiting results from financial heavy-hitters including Citigroup Inc. (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Merrill Lynch (MER). A number of technology companies will also report including Google Inc. (GOOG), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Intel Corp. (INTC).
The economic calendar is not as quiet as last week. Inflation will be the focus as the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index for June are released on Tuesday and Wednesday. A larger-than-expected jump in consumer prices could set the markets in motion to price in a rate cut before the end of the year. The implied market probability for a rate hike by the end of the year has been decreasing recently as economic reports continue to show weakness.
On Monday, Genentech, Inc. (DNA) releases second quarter results after the close and it may be a good stock for longs as shares favor a wider post-earnings share performance. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call are expecting the company to come in with a profit of $0.86 per share on revenue of $3.23 billion. It has extended its after-hours share change during regular trading following an evening earnings report ten times while narrowing seven times. In the near-term, the stock is consistent with that pattern, widening three times out of the past four quarters.
On Tuesday, Intel Corp. (INTC) will be the one to watch when it reports its second quarter results after the bell. Analysts are expecting the company to report a 13.6% increase in earnings to $0.25 per share on revenue of $9.32 billion. Intel is a stock for longs be wary of in the off-hours, and perhaps an issue for shorts to line up if it should post an earnings-driven after-hours upside or downside move. Intel favors a narrowing pattern following after-hours earnings events, cutting back its evening trade in next-day action in ten of its last 16 earnings events. In the near-term, the stock has narrowed its move in three of four quarters. On April 15, Intel jumped 8.8% during evening trading after first quarter earnings met expectations and revenue beat. The gain was reined in the next day and Intel closed higher by 5.8%.
Google Inc. (GOOG) releases its results on Thursday after the close and movement has been mixed recently. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial are expecting Google to report a second quarter earnings jump of 33% to $4.73 per share with a 42% increase in revenue of $3.86 billion. Shares favor a narrowing pattern between the sessions in its long-term performance, cutting back its evening direction in next-day trade in nine of the last 15 quarterly reports. In the near-term, the stock is mixed with two widening and two narrowing patterns in the last four quarters. On April 17, 2008, Google jumped 16.9% in after-hours after the company reported first quarter results that beat the Street. The stock extended its gains the following day, rising 19.9%.
Also Thursday, look out for Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD). AMD is another issue that shorts may want to hammer at. The stock has recorded an earnings-driven upside move in the after-hours in 11 of the last 17 quarters we've tracked. In nine of those quarters, it has seen its after-hours gain reverse or narrow the following regular session. In the six quarters where AMD has recorded an evening decline, it added to that downside the following day five times.
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is another stock to watch on Thursday when it releases its results after the bell. It is not a stock that benefits longs. In fact, it generally favors cutting back its after-hours gains in the following day's regular session and adding to its downside evening moves. Shares have recorded ten earnings-driven after-hours gains in 17 quarters MidnightTrader.com has tracked. In seven of those upside evening moves the stock has narrowed or reversed course the following day. Microsoft has declined seven times in the after-hours following earnings, and in five of those quarters it has added to its downside move the following day.
Finally, Nokia Corp. (NOK) reports earnings in the U.S. pre-market Thursday, and although it consistently reacts to the upside within MidnightTrader.com's database, it has lots of trouble holding those pre-bell gains through the following regular session. In nine of the last 14 earnings-driven pre-market moves we've tracked, Nokia has posted a gain in the pre-market, only to see that advance narrow or reverse in the following regular session in six of those quarters. It has declined five times in earnings-driven pre-market trade, and widened that downside in three quarters.
Posted by Brooks McFeely on Thu, Jul 10, 2008 @ 08:55
An earnings "triple play" occurs when a stock beats earnings and
revenue estimates and guides future earnings higher. There were about
70 stocks that had "triple plays" during the first quarter earnings
season. As we enter the second quarter earnings season, investors may
want to look at these stocks to find momentum plays in the after-hours or pre-market. Using our Earnings Notebook reports will help you identify good plays. Also consider playing the reversal stocks or ones that had
strong reports but fell by the wayside as the overall market declined.
In the first table below, we highlight "triple play" stocks from the
first quarter that are up the most since they opened for trading
following their last earnings report. These stocks had a solid
earnings report and haven't looked back since, even in one of the worst
markets in decades. For momentum traders out there, these names
currently have great relative strength.
In the second table, we highlight "triple play" stocks that had
strong reports and went up initially on earnings, only to fall
significantly since then. These stocks all traded higher on the first
day following their first quarter reports, but have now fallen more
than 10% since then. Investors looking for stocks that may have been
"thrown out with the bathwater" might start with stocks in this list.
Posted by Brooks McFeely on Wed, Jul 09, 2008 @ 08:26
Light crude could trump light metal when it comes to carrying weight on Wall
Street. Stock futures are pointing sideways after oil prices rebounded, dousing
optimism sparked by Alcoa's higher-than-expected earnings late yesterday.
U.S. crude has risen toward $138 a barrel after news that Iran had
test-fired nine missiles and warned that it was ready to retaliate if attacked
over its disputed nuclear projects.
Oil inventories will even be the
star on the data front, given that it's a light day in terms of other economic
indicators.
U.S. Treasuries are mostly lower. The dollar is down against
an index of major currencies.
The Wall Street Journal says less ad
revenue is funneling through YouTube than parent Google had expected.
And the New York Post says a blind trust run by New York City Mayor
Michael Bloomberg could pay as much as $5 billion for Merrill Lynch's stake in
the financial news and data service that bears his name.
The American
Federation of Television and Radio Artists ratified a new prime-time TV
contract, which could cause efforts by the Screen Actors Guild for a better deal
to ... er, sag.
Posted by Brooks McFeely on Wed, Jul 09, 2008 @ 08:00
Ok. the fact that Wachovia (WB) is up 2% pre-market at $15.90 as a result of a Merrill Lynch upgrade to
Neutral form Underperform is probably not by itself sufficient motive to bet the farm on a bank stock. However, indications of a broad financial bottom are beginning to emerge. Here is why:
- All of Wall Street both domestic and overseas have dumped financials and run for cover in treasuries. That money flow may reverse in the next 3-6 months. In fact, shorting the 20 year treasury will likely be a great play in about 6 months.
- The valuations of banks at current levels are very compelling. The major reason for the undervaluation is the remaining uncertainty of additional write downs and a further deterioration of consumer lending.
- Banks are taking significant steps
to repair their balance sheets. Even though some people might not be
happy with the speed, the reality is things are improving.
- Last but not least, the analyst community is beginning to see the bottom with a near complete cessation of downgrades relative to the previous quarter.
Not sure where to invest? Consider Assured Guarantee (AGO), a mortgage insurer that has gone from a 1% market share to roughly 40% over the last 6 months. Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross tends to agree as he has disclosed his investment in
Assured Guarantee (AGO). Ross has
acquired 12.1 million shares or 15% of the total. Wilber isn't the only billionaire investor that likes AGO. Berkshire Hathaway Assurance Corp. have AAA ratings
with stable outlooks. In June, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed Assured
Guaranty Corp.'s AAA financial strength and financial enhancement
ratings. "Relative to a year ago when the company was at a trading
value disadvantage compared with the major primary companies, Assured's
successful negotiation of the nonprime RMBS situation has resulted in
trading value improvement and affirmation of its rating," said Robert
Green, an S&P credit analyst. The outlook is stable which is
supported strong capitalization, a favorable market position, and
conservative investment policy. May be a good time to dip your foot into the financial waters. Don't bet the farm but maybe a chicken or two.
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