Blue Nile (NILE) is due with its Q3 results after the bell tonight. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters look for a mean profit of $0.16 per share on revenue of $68.8 million.

In the sampling of data we've tracked over the last four years, NILE favors cutting back or reversing its moves between the sessions following evening earnings releases. It has narrowed its move eight times and widened five. The near-term performance is fixed in a narrowing pattern as well; the stock has twice reversed direction and twice pared its evening move.

On Aug. 5, 2008, the stock fell 2.5% during evening trading as profit fell from the year-ago period but beat the Street view, sales miss and guidance is below the Street view. Shares rebounded and closed up 1.5% at the final bell of the regular session.

On May 6, 2008, NILE edged down 0.8% in after-hours trade after beating Q1 estimates but issuing Q2 earnings guidance below the Street view. It turned to the plus side the next day, rising 2.7% by the close on May 7.

On Feb. 12, 2008, the stock tumbled 20.4% during evening trading after NILE missed with Q4 revenue and set EPS guidance below the Street view. The loss was trimmed just slightly and shares ended down 17% the next day.

On Nov. 6, 2007, NILE charged 11.1% higher in after-hours trade after reporting strong earnings results. It edged back from that upside a bit the next day, closing the Nov. 7 regular session up 9.1%.

On Aug. 6, 2007, NILE gained 3% in evening trade after beating Q2 estimates and guiding above Street forecasts. Shares soared the next day, closing the regular session up 15.8%.

On May 7, 2007, NILE advanced 6.6% in after-hours trading after the company reported improved year-over-year results and guided mostly in-line with expectations. Those post-bell gains expanded the next day with NILE rising 16.2% in the May 8 regular session.

On Feb. 12, 2007, NILE edged up 0.4% in night trade after beating Q4 estimates. Shares strengthened further the next day, closing the regular session up 3.9%.

On Oct. 30, 2006, the stock fell 4.5% in the evening hours after the company beat with its latest results but issued guidance that straddled the Street's view. The stock fell 2.2% the next day.

Play the opposite side of the reaction tonight. In other words, short a bounce higher and go long a dip in the after-hours trading session this evening. History has shown the traders in this stock tend to over react after hours following an earnings report. 

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