Category Archives: The Week Ahead

A preview of the upcoming week on Wall Street issued Friday afternoon.

Earnings Preview: Novell and Marvell Hint To Aggressive Widening Moves

 

novellThe coming week is a shortened one but not without a slew of news.   Investors will hear a number of economic reports including consumer confidence, gross domestic product and durable goods.  Also, a number of companies are slated to report quarterly results including TiVo Inc. (TIVO), Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST), and HJ Heinz Co. (HNZ).

Novell Inc. (NOVL) is slated report its fiscal second-quarter results after the bell Thursday, and analysts expect the company to post earnings of $0.06 per share, even with the same time last year, on revenue of $218 million, according to Reuters Estimates. 

Investors trading into earnings should know that this stock is a strong performer between the sessions, demonstrating a consistent tendency to follow through with more aggressive, same-direction next-day movement following its evening earnings events. It’s posted more robust next day trade following 15 of the last 20 after-hours earnings events we’ve tracked. In the near-term, the stock is maintaining its follow-on trend, adding to its after-hours performance in next-day trade in three of the past four quarters. 

Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) is due with its first-quarter results after the bell Thursday and is expected to report earnings of $0.04 per share, down from $0.24 a year ago, on revenue of $510.6 million. 

Marvell has a tendency to see its after-hours performance narrow or reverse course in next day trade, with only a few exceptions. In the near-term, the stock’s performance is shifting, the stock has widened in three of four quarters with the most recent quarter being the exception.  On March 3, the stock rallied 8.9% in after-hours trading after the company reported results that topped the Street.  The stock trimmed the gain slightly the following regular session, ending up 7.2%.

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Hewlett-Packard and Home Depot Signal Toward Widening Moves

 

homedepotA number of big-name tech and retail companies are set to report earnings results this week including The Home Depot Inc. (HD), Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ), and Target Corp. (TGT).  Investors will also be paying close attention to housing starts, which will be released on Tuesday.

Hewlett-Packard is set to report its quarterly results after the bell Tuesday, and analysts polled by Reuters are expecting a profit of $0.85 per share, up from $0.87 per share a year ago, on revenue of $27.4 billion. 

Traders playing this stock into earnings should know that it strongly favors a pattern where it follows through with more aggressive next-day regular session trade following an earnings-driven after-hours move.  Traders going long should stick with their trade in the regular session if the stock makes a move higher in the pre-market.  HP has moved more aggressively in the same direction the next day in 13 of 21 quarters. In the near term, it has added to its evening performance in next-day trade in the last five consecutive quarters.  

The Home Depot is due to report first-quarter results before the bell on Tuesday, and analysts are expecting earnings of $0.28 per share, down from $0.41 a year ago, on revenue of $15.9 billion.

In the near-term, Home Depot is trending toward a widening pattern, adding to its extended-hours performance in follow-on regular session trade in all of the last four earnings events.  On February 24, the stock gained 5% in the pre-market after its profit topped the Street by four cents a share.  The stock widened its pre-market move in the regular session, ending up 10.5%.

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Wal-Mart, Priceline.com, Macy’s Kick Off Retail Earnings Next Week

pricelineLast week, investors got a peak at how well retailers are faring after companies from Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) to Wet Seal Inc. (WTSLA) reported their sales results for April.  For the most part, April retail sales were better-than-expected, showing signs that their declines are slowing.  Next week, earnings from Wal-Mart, Macy’s Inc (M), Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) and Nordstrom Inc.  (JWN) will give investors a better idea of their outlooks for the near future.

Priceline.com (PCLN) is due with its first-quarter results in the extended-hours session Monday. The average analyst estimate in the Thomson Reuters survey is for $0.91 per share, up from $0.76 per share a year ago, on revenue of $440.8 million.

Investors going long should know that Priceline.com shows a tendency to widen its next day share movement following an evening earnings release, doing so for 15 of the past 21 quarters. In the near-term, the stock is also showing that pattern, widening its share move three times in the most recent four quarters.  On February 18, the stock rallied 12.8% in after-hours trading and extended those gains the following regular session, ending up 16.6%.

Looking deeper into the performance data, longs may be interested to know that Priceline has seen a positive post-bell earnings-driven trade in 13 of the 21 quarters we’ve tracked, and in 10 of those upside evening moves the stock has followed that trade with a more aggressive positive run in the next day’s regular session.

Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFMI) is another stock that likes to widen its extended-hours move following earnings.  On Wednesday, the high-end grocery chain is expected to report earnings of $0.18 per share, down from $0.29 a year ago, on revenue of $1.87 billion.

Whole Foods has developed a strong pattern of widening price moves between the sessions following its after-hours earnings-related events, extending its move after 14 of its past 19 earnings-related events. In the near-term, the pattern is mixed, however, with two narrowing and two widening events in the last four quarters.  On February 18, the stock rallied 7.3% in after-hours trading after quarterly results beat the Street.  The stock extended those gains the following regular session, ending up a whopping 37.2%.

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Cisco Traders May See Reversal In Shares; Nvidia Likely To Widen

 

ciscoStocks will kick off their first full week of May with earnings from Walt Disney (DIS), Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Lincoln National (LNC), among many other.  Investors will also hear the latest reading on unemployment on Friday.  

Cisco Systems is slated to report its third-quarter results after the bell Wednesday, and analysts expect the company to report a profit of $0.24 per share, down from $0.38 a year ago, on revenue of $8.1 billion, according to Reuters Estimates.  The stock has lost 23.7% over the past 12 months.

In the near-term, the stock has moved to favoring a reversal trend, cutting back or reversing its evening performance in next-day regular session trade in six consecutive quarters.   Looking deeper into the performance data, shorts should be interested to know that Cisco has seen a negative post-bell earnings-driven trade in 14 of the 23 quarters we’ve tracked, and in nine of those downside evening moves the stock has followed that trade with a more aggressive negative run in the next day’s regular session.

On the long side, Cisco is about evenly mixed, recording nine earnings-driven upside evening moves in the 22 quarters we’ve followed - widening those gains four times the next day and recording five other events where the gains were cut back or reversed the following day. 

Nvidia (NVDA) is set to report its first-quarter results after the bell Thursday, and analysts expect the company to report a loss of $0.11 per share, down from a profit of $0.36 a year ago, on revenue of $502.6 million.  The stock has lost 42% over the past 12 months.

Traders should hold their positions if they are on the right side of the trade in the after-hours.  Nvidia strongly favors a widening pattern between its after-hours move and the next day session following an evening earnings event.  Shares have widened their next-day price movement in all of the last four sessions.  On February 10, the stock fell 2.8% in after-hours trading and widened that move the following regular session, ending down 12.6%.

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Bank of America, Microsoft, and IBM Continue Earnings Parade

bankamericaStocks ended their sixth straight week with gains, but a number of financial companies, including Bank of America (BAC) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) still have yet to report results. Aside from banks, technology companies will also dominate earnings this week as investors hear from IBM (IBM), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD).

Goldman Sachs (GS) and Wells Fargo (WFC) have eased some investors concerns after posting earnings improvements in the first-quarter, however, some of the optimism was reigned in last week after UBS AG (UBS) said it expects to report a first-quarter loss of nearly $1.75 billion and will cut 8,700 jobs worldwide by the end of next year. Citigroup (C) also reported better-than-expected first-quarter results Friday, though the company continues to take charges to reserve for consumer defaults.

On Monday, IBM reports its first-quarter results in after-hours trading, and analysts polled by Reuters expect a profit of $1.66, up 1.2% from a year ago, on revenue of $22.6 billion. The stock is down 16% over the past 12 months.

Investors trading into earnings should know that IBM favors a long-term reversal pattern in its session-to-session performance, crossing narrower next-day percentage closing levels following after-hours earnings events in 11 of the last 19. However, the near-term is mixed, with the stock widening once, narrowing once, and reversing twice its rafter-hours move in the following regular session. On January 20, the stock rose 4% in after-hours trading when IBM guided for higher 2009 earnings. The stock widened its move in the following trading session, ending up 11.5%.

Yahoo! (YHOO) is due with its first-quarter results after the close on Tuesday and is expected to report earnings of $0.08 per share, down 27% from a year ago, on revenue of $1.2 billion. Yahoo shares are down 50% over the past 12 months and are trading slightly above their 50-day moving average.

Investors trading into earnings should know that in the near-term, Yahoo is trending toward widening its after-hours move, doing so in two of the last four quarter. On January 27, the stocks rose 4.2% in after-hours trading after earnings beat the Street. The stock widened its move in the following regular session, ending up 7.9%.

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Alcoa, Bed Bath & Beyond Kick Off First-Quarter Earnings This Week

alcoaStocks have been on a role since the beginning of March, with the major averages touching their highest levels since at least mid-February. With first-quarter earnings set to start in the coming week and the unemployment report out of the way, investors will want to see if the rally can continue.

Alcoa Inc. (AA), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, reports first-quarter results on Tuesday. Analyst expect the company to report its second straight quarterly loss as aluminum demand sinks amid the weakening economy. Alcoa is expected to report a loss of 57 cents per share on revenue of $4.08 billion, according to Reuters Estimates. Shares have been under pressure, dropping 34.8% in the first quarter. However, shares have recently made a come back, rising 31.3% since the beginning of March as some investors believe the worst of recession has passed.

In looking back at Alcoa’s session-to-session performance following after-hours earnings events, shares are mixed. There are 11 wider next-day moves on the heels of evening financials and nine examples of narrower share moves. On January 12, the stocks fell 0.8% in after-hours trading and extended its decline in the following regular session, ending down 5.1%.

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) is also set to report its quarterly results after the close on Tuesday. Analyst expect the home goods retailer to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of 44 cents per share, down one-third from a year ago, on revenue of $1.9 billion. Shares broke above their 50-day moving average in mid-March and have gained more than 28% since the beginning of March.

Investors trading into earnings should know that this stock likes to reverse its moves. In the long term, however, the stock is split between wider and narrower next-day share moves following evening earnings releases over the past 20 quarters MidnightTrader.com has tracked. In the near-term, the stock favors narrowing, however, cutting back or reversing its evening performance in next-day trade in six of the last seven quarters. On January 7, the stock fell 0.2% in after-hours trading and reversed in the following regular session, ending up 4.6%.

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Did Goldman Take The Steam Out of a RIMM Rally?

Blackberry Curve

Blackberry Curve

Stocks managed to close out a third week of gains, on track to cap off their best month in more than seven years, as a few glimmers of hope in economic reports signaled the economy may be turning a corner. Investors will be watching to see if the rally can continue this week with a few key economic reports expected to shape trading. The unemployment report is expected Friday and economists expect the rate to rise to 8.4% in March from 8.1% the prior month. The economy is also expected to have lost 650,000 jobs in March, little changed from February’s loss of 651,000.

Research In Motion (RIMM) is due with its fourth-quarter results after the bell Thursday and is expected to report earnings of $0.84 per share, up 16.7% from a year ago, on revenue of $3.4 billion, according to Reuters Estimates. Investors may want to be wary going into earnings, especially after the recent run it made following comments from Goldman Sachs. On Thursday, the analyst recommended investors buy the stock ahead of the company’s quarterly report, sending shares higher by 5 percent.

If investors do want to go long, they should know that RIMM has made gains in after-hours trading in eight of the past 20 quarters that MidnightTrader.com has tracked. In four of those events, the stock moved more aggressively to the upside the next day.

Micron Technology (MU) is slated to report fourth-quarter results after the bell Thursday. The chip maker is expected to report a loss of $0.64 per share, down 56% from a loss a year ago, on sales of $1.14 billion.

Shorts should be wary of trading this stock as Micron has a tendency to reverse its evening declines the next day. The stock recorded a downside move 12 times in the last 20 quarters, and in seven of those negative trades, shares followed that action by narrowing or reversing its negative trade in the next day’s bell-to-bell action. In the most recent quarter, Micron slid 14.4% in after-hours trading and reversed its move the following regular session, ending up 9.7%.

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