Tag Archives: after hours

Tonight’s After-Hours Earnings Trade: Intel

Added on October 13, 2009 by editor - Comments (0) Posted in Earnings Trades, Most Recent Post Tags: , , , , ,

While there are many stocks that demonstrate patterns where they consistently see their earnings-driven after-hours gains or declines continue the next day, the story on Intel (INTC) is clearly different. In short, investors should expect a reversal from any gains or losses after-hours tonight by the close tomorrow.

How do we know that you ask? Taking a look back at the after-hours earnings reaction history we’ve tracked for Intel and the story becomes quite clear. The chip maker has seen its earnings-driven after-hours price move reverse direction in 64% (14) of the last 22 quarters. In its most recent quarterly report on July 14 of this year, INTC gained 7.3% in the after-hours session after reporting its quarterly results, and ended the July 15 regular session up a slightly narrower 7.2% - not much of a difference for traders to anticipate a reversal but at least an understanding that INTC was likely not to add aggressively to its evening move between the sessions. However, some reversals over the past year have been much greater, leaving room for the nimble trader to make a quick profit.

Looking deeper into INTC’s movement between the sessions, it has seen an earnings-driven after-hours gain in 12 of the last 22 quarters. In 10 of those quarters, 83% of the time, INTC has reversed its evening gain, heading in the opposite direction in the following regular session - a stock shorts may want to keep a close eye on. On the downside, INTC has seen an earnings-driven after-hours decline in 10 of the 22 quarters in our database.

Take a look at this MIDNIGHTTRADER PRO VIDEO ALERT on Intel to get setup for tonight’s trade and see more detail on Intel’s past earnings reactions.

More video alerts are available to MidnightTrader Pro subscribers only. Sign up for a free trial here.

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Tonight’s Trade: IBM Earnings

Added on July 16, 2009 by editor - Comments (0) Posted in Most Recent Post Tags: , , , , , ,

Don’t get too wrapped up in following the price trend in IBM after the close tonight as the blue chip company has a tendency to reverse gains or losses from the after-hours to the next day’s close following an earnings event.

IBM favors a long-term reversal pattern in its session-to-session performance, crossing narrower next-day percentage closing levels following after-hours earnings events in 12 of the last 20 quarters. In the near-term, the stock favors narrowing as well, cutting back or reversing its evening performance in next-day trade in three of the last four quarters.

MT Pro subscribers can listen to the video alert posted for today to get Steve Hill’s detailed commentary on IBM (plus a recap of Intel’s earnings event) in advance of the earnings news due out after the bell tonight.

Basically, consider a short if the stock rises in the after-hours and a long if it falls. Either way, it’s likely to reverse the trend from the after-hours to the close tomorrow. Set a stop loss at no more than a 1% loss on the trade.

Take a look at the historical reaction data we’ve collected over the past few years and you’ll get a sense of the trend.

On April 20, 2009, the stock fell 1.3% after an earnings beat, revenue
miss and reaffirmed guidance. Shares rebounded to gain 1.8% the next
day.

On Jan. 20, 2009, IBM advanced 4.2% in evening trade after reporting
better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock went even higher
the next day, rising 11.5% in the Jan. 21 regular session.

On Oct. 16, 2008, IBM advanced 2.3% in after-hours action after besting
earnings expectations. The gain evaporated the next day as IBM closed
the Oct. 17 regular session down 0.8%.

On July 17, 2008, IBM declined 0.5% in after-hours trade after topping
Q2 expectations. The stock reversed course the next day, and IBM
closed with a 2.6% gain on July 18.

On April 16, 2008, IBM gained 2.7% in after-hours trade after beating
Q1 expectations. That upside was cut back in the April 17 regular
session, with IBM ending the day up a slimmer 2.1%.

On Jan. 14, 2008, IBM pre-announced better-than-expected Q4 results
in pre-market trade and the stock advanced 8% before the bell. It
edged back from that upside in the following regular session, holding a
5.4% rise into the Jan. 14 closing bell.

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ETF Preview: Oil, Other Commodity Funds Improve After Economic Data

Added on June 16, 2009 by editor - Comments (0) Posted in Earnings Trades, Most Recent Post Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

Active-volume exchange-traded funds in Monday’s regular session:

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY): -2.3%

iShares S&P 500 (IVV): -2.3%

PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ): -2.1%

Select Financial Sector SPDRS (XLF): -2.6%

iShares Russell 2000 (IWM): -2.7%

iShares Russell 1000 Growth (IWF): -1.8%

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM): -3.6%

United States Oil Fund (USO): -2.3%

Top-volume movers in this morning’s pre-market session:

SPY, +0.2%

QQQQ, +0.4%

UNG, +3.4%

FAZ, -1.3%

DXO, +3.3%

Winners and Losers-

Major market ETFs, including the SPY, DIA, UYG and others, are firmer this morning as futures trade improved in step with upbeat economic data. Futures had chopped on either side of the even mark following a steep sell-off Monday. The PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ), which tracks the technology-studded Nasdaq Composite, is up 0.4%.

Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) should see increased interest closer to today’s bell. Microsoft (MSFT) is up 0.3%. Jefferies reportedly raised its price target on the stock this morning to $26 from $22 per share.

Financial stocks are modestly firmer this morning. Select Financial Sector SPDRS (XLF) is up 0.1%. The Direxion Financial Bull 3X fund (FAS) is up 1.1%; its bearish counterpart (FAZ) is down 1.3%. Within the sector, Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) is up for a second day in active volume after the stock was mentioned positively Friday night on Jim Cramer’s Mad Money show. Cramer suggested HBAN is the best speculative stock in the financial sector.

Commodities -

The United States Oil Fund (USO) is up 2.7%. Oil futures extended their gains after data showed a jump in housing starts and an increase in producer prices in May. July crude rose $1.83, or 2.6%, to $72.45 a barrel in electronic trading.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is up 1.2%. August gold is up 1.2% to $938.80 an ounce after the economic data hit. iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) is flat. The Market Vectors Gold Miners fund (GDX) is up 2.3% in early action. iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is up 2%.

ETF Power Play -

The SPDR S&P Retail fund (XRT) could see increased downside pressure closer to today’s bell.

Leading sector headlines, Best Buy (BBY) reports Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.42 vs $0.43 a year earlier and topping the Thomson Reuters mean analyst estimate for $0.34. Revenue rose to $10.1 billion from $9 billion a year earlier and in line with the Street view. Same-store sales fell 6.2% vs a gain of 3.7% in the same period a year earlier. The company maintains its FY 2010 guidance, expecting EPS of $2.50 to $2.90 ex-charges. The Street is at $2.79.

GET A 2 WEEK FREE TRIAL HERE FOR MORE AFTER-HOURS AND PRE-MARKET TRADING IDEAS.

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Earnings Preview: Novell and Marvell Hint To Aggressive Widening Moves

Added on May 22, 2009 by cslane - Comments (0) Posted in The Week Ahead Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

novellThe coming week is a shortened one but not without a slew of news.   Investors will hear a number of economic reports including consumer confidence, gross domestic product and durable goods.  Also, a number of companies are slated to report quarterly results including TiVo Inc. (TIVO), Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST), and HJ Heinz Co. (HNZ).

Novell Inc. (NOVL) is slated report its fiscal second-quarter results after the bell Thursday, and analysts expect the company to post earnings of $0.06 per share, even with the same time last year, on revenue of $218 million, according to Reuters Estimates. 

Investors trading into earnings should know that this stock is a strong performer between the sessions, demonstrating a consistent tendency to follow through with more aggressive, same-direction next-day movement following its evening earnings events. It’s posted more robust next day trade following 15 of the last 20 after-hours earnings events we’ve tracked. In the near-term, the stock is maintaining its follow-on trend, adding to its after-hours performance in next-day trade in three of the past four quarters. 

Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) is due with its first-quarter results after the bell Thursday and is expected to report earnings of $0.04 per share, down from $0.24 a year ago, on revenue of $510.6 million. 

Marvell has a tendency to see its after-hours performance narrow or reverse course in next day trade, with only a few exceptions. In the near-term, the stock’s performance is shifting, the stock has widened in three of four quarters with the most recent quarter being the exception.  On March 3, the stock rallied 8.9% in after-hours trading after the company reported results that topped the Street.  The stock trimmed the gain slightly the following regular session, ending up 7.2%.

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Hewlett-Packard and Home Depot Signal Toward Widening Moves

Added on May 15, 2009 by cslane - Comments (0) Posted in The Week Ahead Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

homedepotA number of big-name tech and retail companies are set to report earnings results this week including The Home Depot Inc. (HD), Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ), and Target Corp. (TGT).  Investors will also be paying close attention to housing starts, which will be released on Tuesday.

Hewlett-Packard is set to report its quarterly results after the bell Tuesday, and analysts polled by Reuters are expecting a profit of $0.85 per share, up from $0.87 per share a year ago, on revenue of $27.4 billion. 

Traders playing this stock into earnings should know that it strongly favors a pattern where it follows through with more aggressive next-day regular session trade following an earnings-driven after-hours move.  Traders going long should stick with their trade in the regular session if the stock makes a move higher in the pre-market.  HP has moved more aggressively in the same direction the next day in 13 of 21 quarters. In the near term, it has added to its evening performance in next-day trade in the last five consecutive quarters.  

The Home Depot is due to report first-quarter results before the bell on Tuesday, and analysts are expecting earnings of $0.28 per share, down from $0.41 a year ago, on revenue of $15.9 billion.

In the near-term, Home Depot is trending toward a widening pattern, adding to its extended-hours performance in follow-on regular session trade in all of the last four earnings events.  On February 24, the stock gained 5% in the pre-market after its profit topped the Street by four cents a share.  The stock widened its pre-market move in the regular session, ending up 10.5%.

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Wal-Mart, Priceline.com, Macy’s Kick Off Retail Earnings Next Week

Added on May 8, 2009 by cslane - Comments (0) Posted in The Week Ahead Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

pricelineLast week, investors got a peak at how well retailers are faring after companies from Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) to Wet Seal Inc. (WTSLA) reported their sales results for April.  For the most part, April retail sales were better-than-expected, showing signs that their declines are slowing.  Next week, earnings from Wal-Mart, Macy’s Inc (M), Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) and Nordstrom Inc.  (JWN) will give investors a better idea of their outlooks for the near future.

Priceline.com (PCLN) is due with its first-quarter results in the extended-hours session Monday. The average analyst estimate in the Thomson Reuters survey is for $0.91 per share, up from $0.76 per share a year ago, on revenue of $440.8 million.

Investors going long should know that Priceline.com shows a tendency to widen its next day share movement following an evening earnings release, doing so for 15 of the past 21 quarters. In the near-term, the stock is also showing that pattern, widening its share move three times in the most recent four quarters.  On February 18, the stock rallied 12.8% in after-hours trading and extended those gains the following regular session, ending up 16.6%.

Looking deeper into the performance data, longs may be interested to know that Priceline has seen a positive post-bell earnings-driven trade in 13 of the 21 quarters we’ve tracked, and in 10 of those upside evening moves the stock has followed that trade with a more aggressive positive run in the next day’s regular session.

Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFMI) is another stock that likes to widen its extended-hours move following earnings.  On Wednesday, the high-end grocery chain is expected to report earnings of $0.18 per share, down from $0.29 a year ago, on revenue of $1.87 billion.

Whole Foods has developed a strong pattern of widening price moves between the sessions following its after-hours earnings-related events, extending its move after 14 of its past 19 earnings-related events. In the near-term, the pattern is mixed, however, with two narrowing and two widening events in the last four quarters.  On February 18, the stock rallied 7.3% in after-hours trading after quarterly results beat the Street.  The stock extended those gains the following regular session, ending up a whopping 37.2%.

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Cisco Traders May See Reversal In Shares; Nvidia Likely To Widen

Added on May 1, 2009 by cslane - Comments (0) Posted in The Week Ahead Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

ciscoStocks will kick off their first full week of May with earnings from Walt Disney (DIS), Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Lincoln National (LNC), among many other.  Investors will also hear the latest reading on unemployment on Friday.  

Cisco Systems is slated to report its third-quarter results after the bell Wednesday, and analysts expect the company to report a profit of $0.24 per share, down from $0.38 a year ago, on revenue of $8.1 billion, according to Reuters Estimates.  The stock has lost 23.7% over the past 12 months.

In the near-term, the stock has moved to favoring a reversal trend, cutting back or reversing its evening performance in next-day regular session trade in six consecutive quarters.   Looking deeper into the performance data, shorts should be interested to know that Cisco has seen a negative post-bell earnings-driven trade in 14 of the 23 quarters we’ve tracked, and in nine of those downside evening moves the stock has followed that trade with a more aggressive negative run in the next day’s regular session.

On the long side, Cisco is about evenly mixed, recording nine earnings-driven upside evening moves in the 22 quarters we’ve followed - widening those gains four times the next day and recording five other events where the gains were cut back or reversed the following day. 

Nvidia (NVDA) is set to report its first-quarter results after the bell Thursday, and analysts expect the company to report a loss of $0.11 per share, down from a profit of $0.36 a year ago, on revenue of $502.6 million.  The stock has lost 42% over the past 12 months.

Traders should hold their positions if they are on the right side of the trade in the after-hours.  Nvidia strongly favors a widening pattern between its after-hours move and the next day session following an evening earnings event.  Shares have widened their next-day price movement in all of the last four sessions.  On February 10, the stock fell 2.8% in after-hours trading and widened that move the following regular session, ending down 12.6%.

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Earnings Play: Baidu and Akamai Pointing Toward Widening Moves

Added on April 24, 2009 by cslane - Comments (4) Posted in Most Recent Post Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

baiduInvestors will continue to hear earnings results from a number of companies this week including Starbucks (SBUX) and Motorola (MOT),  just to name a few. On Wednesday, investors will also get their first peak at how well the economy fared in the first-quarter, when advanced gross domestic product is released.

Baidu.com (BIDU) is due to report first-quarter results after the close on Monday. Analysts expect China’s top Internet search company to report earnings of $0.75 per share, up from $0.60 a year ago, on revenue of $115.2 million. Shares have gained 63% since the beginning of the year as advertising sales start to pick up. On April 17, the company it had seen a significant rise in advertising since late January, as business sentiment improved in the world’s third largest economy

Baidu is one for longs to watch as the stock has shown a strong tendency in the near-term to widen its next-day share move following its post-earnings share performance in the preceding evening session. It’s done so four out of the last four quarters MidnightTrader.com has tracked. Three out of four of those move were to the upside. On February 18, shares rose 0.7% in the after-hours and widened the next day, ending up 3.5%.

Akamai Technologies (AKAM) releases its first-quarter results after the close of trading Wednesday. Analysts expect the company to report earnings of $0.40 per share, down from $0.41 a year ago, on revenue of $208.3 million.

AKAM has recorded more aggressive next-day closing levels following 16 of its last 21 after-hours earnings events. In fact, the stock has seen wider next-day moves in 13 of its last 15 earnings periods and in the last four out of five quarters. On February 4, the stock rose 7.4% in after-hours action and widened its move the next regular session, ending up 18.1%.

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Bank of America, Microsoft, and IBM Continue Earnings Parade

Added on April 17, 2009 by cslane - Comments (2) Posted in The Week Ahead Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

bankamericaStocks ended their sixth straight week with gains, but a number of financial companies, including Bank of America (BAC) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) still have yet to report results. Aside from banks, technology companies will also dominate earnings this week as investors hear from IBM (IBM), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD).

Goldman Sachs (GS) and Wells Fargo (WFC) have eased some investors concerns after posting earnings improvements in the first-quarter, however, some of the optimism was reigned in last week after UBS AG (UBS) said it expects to report a first-quarter loss of nearly $1.75 billion and will cut 8,700 jobs worldwide by the end of next year. Citigroup (C) also reported better-than-expected first-quarter results Friday, though the company continues to take charges to reserve for consumer defaults.

On Monday, IBM reports its first-quarter results in after-hours trading, and analysts polled by Reuters expect a profit of $1.66, up 1.2% from a year ago, on revenue of $22.6 billion. The stock is down 16% over the past 12 months.

Investors trading into earnings should know that IBM favors a long-term reversal pattern in its session-to-session performance, crossing narrower next-day percentage closing levels following after-hours earnings events in 11 of the last 19. However, the near-term is mixed, with the stock widening once, narrowing once, and reversing twice its rafter-hours move in the following regular session. On January 20, the stock rose 4% in after-hours trading when IBM guided for higher 2009 earnings. The stock widened its move in the following trading session, ending up 11.5%.

Yahoo! (YHOO) is due with its first-quarter results after the close on Tuesday and is expected to report earnings of $0.08 per share, down 27% from a year ago, on revenue of $1.2 billion. Yahoo shares are down 50% over the past 12 months and are trading slightly above their 50-day moving average.

Investors trading into earnings should know that in the near-term, Yahoo is trending toward widening its after-hours move, doing so in two of the last four quarter. On January 27, the stocks rose 4.2% in after-hours trading after earnings beat the Street. The stock widened its move in the following regular session, ending up 7.9%.

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On Deck: GE’s Friday Surprise

Added on April 16, 2009 by editor - Comments (0) Posted in Earnings Trades, Most Recent Post Tags: , , , , , , ,

General Electric (GE) is due to report its Q1 results in the pre-market on Friday, April 17. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect the company to report a profit of $0.21 per share on revenue of $39 billion. While most of Wall Street has shied away from GE, and for good reason, the time has come for a rebound on the heels of an in-line or upside earnings surprise.

From a fundamental point of view, the company maintains a healthy cash position and increasing revenues from the energy infrastructure and technology infrastructure segments. In addition, the company has signed new contracts and expanded a manufacturing facility in China, improving margins on related products and expanding its foothold in a country likely to become an ever greater economic engine.

The GE Capital credit concerns have been overblown and investors have been stepping back into the stock, pushing it up from staggering lows in the 6’s recent to over $11. There is still time and room to run. With a health dividend yield of greater than 10% and the sector’s lowest P/E, most investors would be wise to get paid while waiting for the stock price to rise.

From a historical price reaction perspective, when it comes to pre-market earnings events GE tends to see follow through gains or losses from the pre-market to the regular session close. In other words, the stock tends to follow-through with the trend that develops ahead of the open.

While we anticipate a positive reaction to any in-line or above estimates results, extended-hours traders tend to be right on with GE. As history shows and from a risk/reward standpoint, its best to just go with the trend.

On Jan. 23, 2009, shares fell 6.1% in the pre-market session after the company reported earnings in line but missed with revenue. The loss fattened to 10.7% in regular trading later that day.

On Oct. 10, 2008, GE rose 0.5% in pre-market trade after posting Q3 results in line with Street estimates. The stock recorded a sharp rise in the regular session, soaring to a 13.1% gain in the Oct. 10 regular session.

On July 11, 2008, GE declined 0.5% in pre-market trade after meeting earnings expectations, beating on revenue, and backing its fiscal year view. The stock turned positive in the following regular session, eking just higher, up 0.07% by the closing bell.

On April 11, 2008, GE tumbled 11.5% in pre-market trade after missing Q1 expectations and setting its guidance below Street estimates. It added to its downside in the following regular session, losing 12.8% by the closing bell.

On Jan. 18, 2008, GE advanced 2.3% in pre-market trade after meeting Q4 expectations and maintaining its 2008 guidance largely in line with the Street view. The stock added to its upside in the following regular session, gaining 3.3% by the closing bell.me stock news and trading ideas FREE for 2 weeks. < Learn More >here.

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