Tag Archives: extended-hours

Flu Season Stocks

Added on October 6, 2009 by editor - Comments (0) Posted in Most Recent Post Tags: , , , , , , ,

There is a season for everything, and unfortunately it’s flu season. Unless you’ve been living under a rock (or in Afghanistan), you’re well aware of the additional press this season has garnered thanks to our friends in the swine community. Needless to say, there tends to be quite a bit of excitement over health care shares related to potential blockbuster treatments of  the disease or illness du jour. H1N1 is no different in causing the very common and typically unwarranted irrational exuberance from the average investor.

Taking a  look at some recent extended-hours trading activity in leading health care companies that are linked in some way to the Swine flu and/or seasonal flu, we’ve uncovered some notable and consistent activity worth a glance.

Here’s a sampling of five stocks that have seen big flu news-driven volume in the pre-market (most release their news then), 12 events in all, and in 11 of those moves the stocks lost a good chunk of their gains by that day’s regular session close. For the long fans of this group it’s obviously a sector to play ahead of the bell and beat feet out. On the short side, bet the downside at the open and see how far south it goes. The below information is provided to our LIVE BRIEFS customers in real time.

Novavax (NVAX)

9/1 Pre-Market: +22%; 9/1 Reg. Session: +10.1% (Company News)

8/18 Pre-Market: +9.8%; 8/18 Reg. Session: +7.5% (Company News)

CEL-SCI Corp. (CVM)

9/16 Pre-Market: +22%; 9/16 Reg. Session: last down 1.5% (Company News)

9/15 Pre-Market: +25%; 9/16 Reg. Session: +48% (Company News)

BioCryst (BCRX)

9/15 Pre-Market: +12.7%; 9/15 Reg. Session: +8.7% (Company News)

Sinovac Biotech (SVA)

9/2 Pre-Market: +2.2%; 9/2 Reg. Session: -2.6% (Company News)

9/3 Pre-Market: +20.2%; 9/3 Reg. Session: +10% (Company News)

9/1 Pre-Market: +15%; 9/1 Reg. Session: +7.7% (Company News)

8/28 Pre-Market: +19.5%; 8/28 Reg. Session: +8% (Company News)

Vical (VICL)

9/10 Pre-Market: +8.7%; 9/10 Reg. Session: +5.9% (Company News)

9/8 Pre-Market: +5%; 9/8 Reg. Session: +1.4% (Company News)

9/3 Pre-Market: +14.5%; 9/3 Reg. Session: +12% (Company News)

Stay tuned for more LIVE BRIEFS alerts.

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Tonight’s Trade: IBM Earnings

Added on July 16, 2009 by editor - Comments (0) Posted in Most Recent Post Tags: , , , , , ,

Don’t get too wrapped up in following the price trend in IBM after the close tonight as the blue chip company has a tendency to reverse gains or losses from the after-hours to the next day’s close following an earnings event.

IBM favors a long-term reversal pattern in its session-to-session performance, crossing narrower next-day percentage closing levels following after-hours earnings events in 12 of the last 20 quarters. In the near-term, the stock favors narrowing as well, cutting back or reversing its evening performance in next-day trade in three of the last four quarters.

MT Pro subscribers can listen to the video alert posted for today to get Steve Hill’s detailed commentary on IBM (plus a recap of Intel’s earnings event) in advance of the earnings news due out after the bell tonight.

Basically, consider a short if the stock rises in the after-hours and a long if it falls. Either way, it’s likely to reverse the trend from the after-hours to the close tomorrow. Set a stop loss at no more than a 1% loss on the trade.

Take a look at the historical reaction data we’ve collected over the past few years and you’ll get a sense of the trend.

On April 20, 2009, the stock fell 1.3% after an earnings beat, revenue
miss and reaffirmed guidance. Shares rebounded to gain 1.8% the next
day.

On Jan. 20, 2009, IBM advanced 4.2% in evening trade after reporting
better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock went even higher
the next day, rising 11.5% in the Jan. 21 regular session.

On Oct. 16, 2008, IBM advanced 2.3% in after-hours action after besting
earnings expectations. The gain evaporated the next day as IBM closed
the Oct. 17 regular session down 0.8%.

On July 17, 2008, IBM declined 0.5% in after-hours trade after topping
Q2 expectations. The stock reversed course the next day, and IBM
closed with a 2.6% gain on July 18.

On April 16, 2008, IBM gained 2.7% in after-hours trade after beating
Q1 expectations. That upside was cut back in the April 17 regular
session, with IBM ending the day up a slimmer 2.1%.

On Jan. 14, 2008, IBM pre-announced better-than-expected Q4 results
in pre-market trade and the stock advanced 8% before the bell. It
edged back from that upside in the following regular session, holding a
5.4% rise into the Jan. 14 closing bell.

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ETF Preview: Oil, Other Commodity Funds Improve After Economic Data

Added on June 16, 2009 by editor - Comments (0) Posted in Earnings Trades, Most Recent Post Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

Active-volume exchange-traded funds in Monday’s regular session:

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY): -2.3%

iShares S&P 500 (IVV): -2.3%

PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ): -2.1%

Select Financial Sector SPDRS (XLF): -2.6%

iShares Russell 2000 (IWM): -2.7%

iShares Russell 1000 Growth (IWF): -1.8%

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM): -3.6%

United States Oil Fund (USO): -2.3%

Top-volume movers in this morning’s pre-market session:

SPY, +0.2%

QQQQ, +0.4%

UNG, +3.4%

FAZ, -1.3%

DXO, +3.3%

Winners and Losers-

Major market ETFs, including the SPY, DIA, UYG and others, are firmer this morning as futures trade improved in step with upbeat economic data. Futures had chopped on either side of the even mark following a steep sell-off Monday. The PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ), which tracks the technology-studded Nasdaq Composite, is up 0.4%.

Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) should see increased interest closer to today’s bell. Microsoft (MSFT) is up 0.3%. Jefferies reportedly raised its price target on the stock this morning to $26 from $22 per share.

Financial stocks are modestly firmer this morning. Select Financial Sector SPDRS (XLF) is up 0.1%. The Direxion Financial Bull 3X fund (FAS) is up 1.1%; its bearish counterpart (FAZ) is down 1.3%. Within the sector, Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) is up for a second day in active volume after the stock was mentioned positively Friday night on Jim Cramer’s Mad Money show. Cramer suggested HBAN is the best speculative stock in the financial sector.

Commodities -

The United States Oil Fund (USO) is up 2.7%. Oil futures extended their gains after data showed a jump in housing starts and an increase in producer prices in May. July crude rose $1.83, or 2.6%, to $72.45 a barrel in electronic trading.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is up 1.2%. August gold is up 1.2% to $938.80 an ounce after the economic data hit. iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) is flat. The Market Vectors Gold Miners fund (GDX) is up 2.3% in early action. iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is up 2%.

ETF Power Play -

The SPDR S&P Retail fund (XRT) could see increased downside pressure closer to today’s bell.

Leading sector headlines, Best Buy (BBY) reports Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.42 vs $0.43 a year earlier and topping the Thomson Reuters mean analyst estimate for $0.34. Revenue rose to $10.1 billion from $9 billion a year earlier and in line with the Street view. Same-store sales fell 6.2% vs a gain of 3.7% in the same period a year earlier. The company maintains its FY 2010 guidance, expecting EPS of $2.50 to $2.90 ex-charges. The Street is at $2.79.

GET A 2 WEEK FREE TRIAL HERE FOR MORE AFTER-HOURS AND PRE-MARKET TRADING IDEAS.

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Wal-Mart, Priceline.com, Macy’s Kick Off Retail Earnings Next Week

Added on May 8, 2009 by cslane - Comments (0) Posted in The Week Ahead Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

pricelineLast week, investors got a peak at how well retailers are faring after companies from Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) to Wet Seal Inc. (WTSLA) reported their sales results for April.  For the most part, April retail sales were better-than-expected, showing signs that their declines are slowing.  Next week, earnings from Wal-Mart, Macy’s Inc (M), Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) and Nordstrom Inc.  (JWN) will give investors a better idea of their outlooks for the near future.

Priceline.com (PCLN) is due with its first-quarter results in the extended-hours session Monday. The average analyst estimate in the Thomson Reuters survey is for $0.91 per share, up from $0.76 per share a year ago, on revenue of $440.8 million.

Investors going long should know that Priceline.com shows a tendency to widen its next day share movement following an evening earnings release, doing so for 15 of the past 21 quarters. In the near-term, the stock is also showing that pattern, widening its share move three times in the most recent four quarters.  On February 18, the stock rallied 12.8% in after-hours trading and extended those gains the following regular session, ending up 16.6%.

Looking deeper into the performance data, longs may be interested to know that Priceline has seen a positive post-bell earnings-driven trade in 13 of the 21 quarters we’ve tracked, and in 10 of those upside evening moves the stock has followed that trade with a more aggressive positive run in the next day’s regular session.

Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFMI) is another stock that likes to widen its extended-hours move following earnings.  On Wednesday, the high-end grocery chain is expected to report earnings of $0.18 per share, down from $0.29 a year ago, on revenue of $1.87 billion.

Whole Foods has developed a strong pattern of widening price moves between the sessions following its after-hours earnings-related events, extending its move after 14 of its past 19 earnings-related events. In the near-term, the pattern is mixed, however, with two narrowing and two widening events in the last four quarters.  On February 18, the stock rallied 7.3% in after-hours trading after quarterly results beat the Street.  The stock extended those gains the following regular session, ending up a whopping 37.2%.

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On Deck: GE’s Friday Surprise

Added on April 16, 2009 by editor - Comments (0) Posted in Earnings Trades, Most Recent Post Tags: , , , , , , ,

General Electric (GE) is due to report its Q1 results in the pre-market on Friday, April 17. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect the company to report a profit of $0.21 per share on revenue of $39 billion. While most of Wall Street has shied away from GE, and for good reason, the time has come for a rebound on the heels of an in-line or upside earnings surprise.

From a fundamental point of view, the company maintains a healthy cash position and increasing revenues from the energy infrastructure and technology infrastructure segments. In addition, the company has signed new contracts and expanded a manufacturing facility in China, improving margins on related products and expanding its foothold in a country likely to become an ever greater economic engine.

The GE Capital credit concerns have been overblown and investors have been stepping back into the stock, pushing it up from staggering lows in the 6’s recent to over $11. There is still time and room to run. With a health dividend yield of greater than 10% and the sector’s lowest P/E, most investors would be wise to get paid while waiting for the stock price to rise.

From a historical price reaction perspective, when it comes to pre-market earnings events GE tends to see follow through gains or losses from the pre-market to the regular session close. In other words, the stock tends to follow-through with the trend that develops ahead of the open.

While we anticipate a positive reaction to any in-line or above estimates results, extended-hours traders tend to be right on with GE. As history shows and from a risk/reward standpoint, its best to just go with the trend.

On Jan. 23, 2009, shares fell 6.1% in the pre-market session after the company reported earnings in line but missed with revenue. The loss fattened to 10.7% in regular trading later that day.

On Oct. 10, 2008, GE rose 0.5% in pre-market trade after posting Q3 results in line with Street estimates. The stock recorded a sharp rise in the regular session, soaring to a 13.1% gain in the Oct. 10 regular session.

On July 11, 2008, GE declined 0.5% in pre-market trade after meeting earnings expectations, beating on revenue, and backing its fiscal year view. The stock turned positive in the following regular session, eking just higher, up 0.07% by the closing bell.

On April 11, 2008, GE tumbled 11.5% in pre-market trade after missing Q1 expectations and setting its guidance below Street estimates. It added to its downside in the following regular session, losing 12.8% by the closing bell.

On Jan. 18, 2008, GE advanced 2.3% in pre-market trade after meeting Q4 expectations and maintaining its 2008 guidance largely in line with the Street view. The stock added to its upside in the following regular session, gaining 3.3% by the closing bell.me stock news and trading ideas FREE for 2 weeks. < Learn More >here.

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Borders Expected to Drop on Earnings News

Added on March 31, 2009 by editor - Comments (4) Posted in Most Recent Post Tags: , , , , , ,

Borders Retail StoreBorders Group (BGP) is slated to report its Q4 results in the extended-hours tonight. Analysts expect a profit of $0.95 per share on revenue of $1.15 billion, according to Thomson Reuters. Traders should should be prepared to short the stock in the after hours this evening.

The borders model is getting hammered by Amazon.com and even Barnes & Noble. Amazon.com’s Kindle ebook reading device is rapidly draining the incentive to visit a retail store for reading material. Aside from the deterioration in business fundamentals, the stock has a tendency to drop big in late trading on its earnings and fall further the next day. Let history be your guide…

On Nov. 25, 2008, BGP tumbled 31.5% in after-hours trade after missing sales expectations. It plummeted further in the red the next day, losing 40.5% by the closing bell on Nov. 26.

On May 27, 2008, the stock fell 4% in after-hours trading after BGP reported a deeper loss on fewer sales. The stock well a wider 7.2% the next day.

Get your finger on the short trigger should BGP drop following its earnings annoucement this eveving.

To get more earnings event related trading ideas, try our Earnings Notebook service for two weeks free.

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Did Goldman Take The Steam Out of a RIMM Rally?

Added on March 27, 2009 by cslane - Comments (0) Posted in The Week Ahead Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Blackberry Curve

Blackberry Curve

Stocks managed to close out a third week of gains, on track to cap off their best month in more than seven years, as a few glimmers of hope in economic reports signaled the economy may be turning a corner. Investors will be watching to see if the rally can continue this week with a few key economic reports expected to shape trading. The unemployment report is expected Friday and economists expect the rate to rise to 8.4% in March from 8.1% the prior month. The economy is also expected to have lost 650,000 jobs in March, little changed from February’s loss of 651,000.

Research In Motion (RIMM) is due with its fourth-quarter results after the bell Thursday and is expected to report earnings of $0.84 per share, up 16.7% from a year ago, on revenue of $3.4 billion, according to Reuters Estimates. Investors may want to be wary going into earnings, especially after the recent run it made following comments from Goldman Sachs. On Thursday, the analyst recommended investors buy the stock ahead of the company’s quarterly report, sending shares higher by 5 percent.

If investors do want to go long, they should know that RIMM has made gains in after-hours trading in eight of the past 20 quarters that MidnightTrader.com has tracked. In four of those events, the stock moved more aggressively to the upside the next day.

Micron Technology (MU) is slated to report fourth-quarter results after the bell Thursday. The chip maker is expected to report a loss of $0.64 per share, down 56% from a loss a year ago, on sales of $1.14 billion.

Shorts should be wary of trading this stock as Micron has a tendency to reverse its evening declines the next day. The stock recorded a downside move 12 times in the last 20 quarters, and in seven of those negative trades, shares followed that action by narrowing or reversing its negative trade in the next day’s bell-to-bell action. In the most recent quarter, Micron slid 14.4% in after-hours trading and reversed its move the following regular session, ending up 9.7%.

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Earnings This Week: National Semiconductor and American Eagle May Be Good Stock Plays

Added on March 6, 2009 by admin - Comments (0) Posted in Most Recent Post Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

nsmjpgInvestors are will still be focused on technical levels this week after the major averages breached their November lows last week, dropping to levels not seen since 1997. Fourth-quarter earnings reports are also coming to a close, moving attention toward the economy and rescue plans by the Treasury, Federal Reserve and Obama Administration.

However, a few earnings reports of note remain, including National Semiconductor (NSM) and Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV). Investors will also the latest retail sales figures for February.

On Wednesday, National Semiconductor is due with out with its fiscal third-quarter results before the market opens. The chip maker is expected to report a loss of five cents a share, compared with a profit of 28 cents a share a year ago, on revenue of $296.8 million, according to Reuters Estimates. The company guided for a weak third quarter, saying sales will be lower sequentially by about 30%. The stock has fallen 36% over the past 12 months and is bouncing around 2003 levels.

NSM has largely narrowed or reversed its extended-hours move the next day after an off-hours earnings report. Near-term, it has cut its extended-hours performance in three of the last four quarters. Investors betting long on this one may want to get out before the regular session. On December 8, the stock dropped 7.2% after its second-quarter missed estimates. Shares reversed course in the following regular session, however, finishing up 13.2%.

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) is due with its fourth-quarter results ahead of the opening bell on Wednesday. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect the company to report a profit of 20 cents a share, 70% lower than a year ago, on revenue of $926.5 million. The teen apparel retailer said Thursday its February same-store sales fell 7 percent, less than analysts predicted, and said it still expects earnings per share in the fourth quarter of 19 cents a share.

This stock is one longs may want to take a second look at. In the last 15 earnings-driven extended-hours events MidnightTrader.com has tracked, AEO has followed through with more aggressive next-day, same-direction trade in its move in nine of 15 of the following regular-hours trading sessions. In the near-term, the stock favors a widening trend, adding to its extended-hours performance in the following regular session in two of the last four quarters.

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Signals Show Investors May Want to Go Long This Week on Xilinx and Marvell

Added on February 27, 2009 by admin - Comments (0) Posted in Most Recent Post Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

xilinxjpgStocks will likely continue to test their lows in the coming week after touching their lowest levels since 1997 this past week. Investors continued to get hammered with disappointing economic news including a weaker-than-expected gross domestic product and steep drop in existing home sales. Investors also digested Citigroup’s deal, in which the government and private investors will convert preferred stock into common shares.

As for earnings, Xilinx (XLNX) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings after the bell Tuesday. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are expecting earnings per share of $0.15, down 56% from a year ago, on revenue of $365.7 million. Shares have leaned toward a pattern of widening price moves between the after-hours and regular session following 13 of its past 19 earnings-related events. In the near-term, the stock has widened its share move in three of the most recent four quarters.

Xilinx is shaping up to gain a following on either side of the trade after its earnings report. The stock has recorded an earnings-driven upside move in 12 of the last 19 quarters in MidnightTrader.com’s database. It posted a more aggressive upside move the next day in eight of those events. On the downside, Xilinx has recorded seven earnings-driven after-hours declines, and added to its downside move five times the next day.

Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) is due with its fourth-quarter results after the bell on Thursday, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are expecting the company to report a profit of a penny a share, down 95% from a year ago, on revenue of $510.9 million.

The stock has been trending toward widening its moves recently, doing so in three of the past four quarters. On December 2, the stock jumped 10.6% in after hours action and extended its gains the following regular session, ending up 20.4%.

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Earnings This Week; Investors Are Betting Against NVIDIA

Added on February 6, 2009 by admin - Comments (0) Posted in Most Recent Post Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

nvidiajpgInvestors will be closely watching Capitol Hill for signs of an expected financial package. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is expected to disclose the administration’s plans to address still-ailing financial institutions. The creation of a “bad bank” to warehouse bad loans is widely expected. Anticipation for a financial package sent stocks soaring on Friday despite a disappointing unemployment report. This week earnings will continue as investors hear results from Beazer Homes (BZH), SOHU.com (SOHU) and UBS (UBS), just to name a few.

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is set to report its fourth-quarter results after the bell on Tuesday, and analysts polled by Thomson Financial are expecting the company to report a loss of ten cents per share on revenue of $487.2 million. Shares of NVDIA recently saw a huge surge in short interest, according to Nasdaq. The exchange said short interest rose 67% January 15 compared with December 31 in the stock. So, investors are betting shares will see a steep decline in the coming weeks.

Nvidia slightly favors a narrowing pattern between its after-hours move and the next day session following an evening earnings event. However, in the near-term performance, the stock is showing a tendency to widen its move, doing so in three out of the past four quarters. On November 6, the stock rallied 13.5% in extended hours after the company’s third-quarter results beat the Street. The stock widened its gain in the following regular session, ending up 14.4%.

Applied Materials (AMAT) is due with its fiscal first-quarter results after the close on Tuesday, and analysts polled by Thomson Financial are expecting the company to report a profit of a penny a share, down 96% from a year ago, on revenue of $1.4 billion. However, the biggest supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment recently warned of a loss of 9 to 11 cents per share, after expecting in November earnings of zero to 4 cents a share. The stock has found support above $9 per share, as it hasn’t closed below that level in the past two months.

The stock has a tendency to narrow its after-hours movement the next day following an evening earnings event. It has done so after 11 of the last 19 earnings events. The near-term performance is mixed, however, with two narrower moves and two wider moves in the last four quarters. On November 12, shares of Applied Materials fell 1.4% after the company warned that profit would fall short in the upcoming quarter. However, shares reversed course in the following trading session, ending sharply higher by 14.3%.

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