Tag Archives: pre-market

ETF Preview: Oil Fund Returns to Higher Ground as Trio of Energy Outlooks Due Out This Week

Added on June 9, 2009 by editor - Comments (1) Posted in Most Recent Post Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Active-volume exchange-traded funds in Monday’s regular session:

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY): -0.4%

iShares S&P 500 (IVV): -0.4%

PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ): -0.3%

Select Financial Sector SPDRS (XLF): 0.7%

iShares Russell 2000 (IWM): -1.2%

iShares Russell 1000 Growth (IWF): -0.6%

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM): -1.6%

United States Oil Fund (USO): +0.4%

Top-volume movers in this morning’s pre-market session:

QQQQ, +0.4%

SPY, +0.4%

GLD, +0.2%

USO, +1.6%

IWM, +0.3%

Winners and Losers-

Major market ETFs, including the SPY, DIA, UYG and others, are firmer even as stock futures chop around the even mark ahead of today’s open. The PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ), which tracks the technology-studded Nasdaq Composite, is up 0.4%, topping volume ranks.

Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) is flat but should see increased interest closer to the opening bell. Texas Instruments (TXN) is up 5% and near the evening highs. The company expects Q2 revenue to be within a range of $2.3 to $2.5 bln, above its previous guidance range of $1.95 to $2.4 bln. EPS is seen in the range of $0.14 to $0.22 per share, above its previous view of $0.10 to $0.15 per share. The Street estimate is $2.2 bln in revs and earnings of $0.10 per share.

Banking issues are mostly firmer. The Treasury is preparing to announce today it will let 10 banks buy back government shares, people familiar with the matter said, signaling confidence some of the largest U.S. lenders won’t again need a taxpayer rescue, Bloomberg News reports. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is among those cleared to repay Troubled Asset Relief Program funds, according to the story. Goldman Sachs (GS), American Express (AXP) and State Street (SST) are also among those that have sold shares and debt unguaranteed by the government, demonstrating they can raise funds without federal aid.

At last check, Select Financial Sector SPDRS (XLF) is up 0.8%. The Direxion Financial Bull 3X fund (FAS) is up 1.2% and among the most actively traded banking ETFs; its bearish counterpart (FAZ) is down 0.7%.

The SPDR S&P Retail fund (XRT) could see increased interest closer to the bell with some sector names reporting last night and this morning. Men’s Wearhouse (MW) firmed 9% (at 19.49) in Monday’s after-hours trade after reporting better-than-expected Q1 results. Talbot’s (TLB) swings to a loss on smaller sales and is cutting jobs. The company also guides for a slimmer Q2 loss than the Street expects.

Commodities -

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is up 0.2%. iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) is flat. The Market Vectors Gold Miners fund (GDX) is up 1.4%. Gold is up for the first day in three sessions as the dollar declines against its European counterparts. At last check, gold for August delivery rose $6.10, or 0.6%, to $958.60 an ounce in early North American electronic trading.

Silver for July delivery gained 24.5 cents, or 1.6%, to $15.20 an ounce. iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is up 1.6%.

ETF Power Play -

The United States Oil Fund (USO) is up 1.6%. After a pause to start the week, oil futures are back on track toward $70, up nearly 2% early Tuesday. A steady to weaker dollar is boosting the appeal of oil. Several reports due this week will keep focus on the commodity. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its short-term energy outlook later today. The International Energy Agency and OPEC will release similar reports later this week.

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Earnings Preview: Novell and Marvell Hint To Aggressive Widening Moves

Added on May 22, 2009 by cslane - Comments (0) Posted in The Week Ahead Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

novellThe coming week is a shortened one but not without a slew of news.   Investors will hear a number of economic reports including consumer confidence, gross domestic product and durable goods.  Also, a number of companies are slated to report quarterly results including TiVo Inc. (TIVO), Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST), and HJ Heinz Co. (HNZ).

Novell Inc. (NOVL) is slated report its fiscal second-quarter results after the bell Thursday, and analysts expect the company to post earnings of $0.06 per share, even with the same time last year, on revenue of $218 million, according to Reuters Estimates. 

Investors trading into earnings should know that this stock is a strong performer between the sessions, demonstrating a consistent tendency to follow through with more aggressive, same-direction next-day movement following its evening earnings events. It’s posted more robust next day trade following 15 of the last 20 after-hours earnings events we’ve tracked. In the near-term, the stock is maintaining its follow-on trend, adding to its after-hours performance in next-day trade in three of the past four quarters. 

Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) is due with its first-quarter results after the bell Thursday and is expected to report earnings of $0.04 per share, down from $0.24 a year ago, on revenue of $510.6 million. 

Marvell has a tendency to see its after-hours performance narrow or reverse course in next day trade, with only a few exceptions. In the near-term, the stock’s performance is shifting, the stock has widened in three of four quarters with the most recent quarter being the exception.  On March 3, the stock rallied 8.9% in after-hours trading after the company reported results that topped the Street.  The stock trimmed the gain slightly the following regular session, ending up 7.2%.

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Hewlett-Packard and Home Depot Signal Toward Widening Moves

Added on May 15, 2009 by cslane - Comments (0) Posted in The Week Ahead Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

homedepotA number of big-name tech and retail companies are set to report earnings results this week including The Home Depot Inc. (HD), Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ), and Target Corp. (TGT).  Investors will also be paying close attention to housing starts, which will be released on Tuesday.

Hewlett-Packard is set to report its quarterly results after the bell Tuesday, and analysts polled by Reuters are expecting a profit of $0.85 per share, up from $0.87 per share a year ago, on revenue of $27.4 billion. 

Traders playing this stock into earnings should know that it strongly favors a pattern where it follows through with more aggressive next-day regular session trade following an earnings-driven after-hours move.  Traders going long should stick with their trade in the regular session if the stock makes a move higher in the pre-market.  HP has moved more aggressively in the same direction the next day in 13 of 21 quarters. In the near term, it has added to its evening performance in next-day trade in the last five consecutive quarters.  

The Home Depot is due to report first-quarter results before the bell on Tuesday, and analysts are expecting earnings of $0.28 per share, down from $0.41 a year ago, on revenue of $15.9 billion.

In the near-term, Home Depot is trending toward a widening pattern, adding to its extended-hours performance in follow-on regular session trade in all of the last four earnings events.  On February 24, the stock gained 5% in the pre-market after its profit topped the Street by four cents a share.  The stock widened its pre-market move in the regular session, ending up 10.5%.

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Wal-Mart, Priceline.com, Macy’s Kick Off Retail Earnings Next Week

Added on May 8, 2009 by cslane - Comments (0) Posted in The Week Ahead Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

pricelineLast week, investors got a peak at how well retailers are faring after companies from Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) to Wet Seal Inc. (WTSLA) reported their sales results for April.  For the most part, April retail sales were better-than-expected, showing signs that their declines are slowing.  Next week, earnings from Wal-Mart, Macy’s Inc (M), Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) and Nordstrom Inc.  (JWN) will give investors a better idea of their outlooks for the near future.

Priceline.com (PCLN) is due with its first-quarter results in the extended-hours session Monday. The average analyst estimate in the Thomson Reuters survey is for $0.91 per share, up from $0.76 per share a year ago, on revenue of $440.8 million.

Investors going long should know that Priceline.com shows a tendency to widen its next day share movement following an evening earnings release, doing so for 15 of the past 21 quarters. In the near-term, the stock is also showing that pattern, widening its share move three times in the most recent four quarters.  On February 18, the stock rallied 12.8% in after-hours trading and extended those gains the following regular session, ending up 16.6%.

Looking deeper into the performance data, longs may be interested to know that Priceline has seen a positive post-bell earnings-driven trade in 13 of the 21 quarters we’ve tracked, and in 10 of those upside evening moves the stock has followed that trade with a more aggressive positive run in the next day’s regular session.

Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFMI) is another stock that likes to widen its extended-hours move following earnings.  On Wednesday, the high-end grocery chain is expected to report earnings of $0.18 per share, down from $0.29 a year ago, on revenue of $1.87 billion.

Whole Foods has developed a strong pattern of widening price moves between the sessions following its after-hours earnings-related events, extending its move after 14 of its past 19 earnings-related events. In the near-term, the pattern is mixed, however, with two narrowing and two widening events in the last four quarters.  On February 18, the stock rallied 7.3% in after-hours trading after quarterly results beat the Street.  The stock extended those gains the following regular session, ending up a whopping 37.2%.

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Cisco Traders May See Reversal In Shares; Nvidia Likely To Widen

Added on May 1, 2009 by cslane - Comments (0) Posted in The Week Ahead Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

ciscoStocks will kick off their first full week of May with earnings from Walt Disney (DIS), Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Lincoln National (LNC), among many other.  Investors will also hear the latest reading on unemployment on Friday.  

Cisco Systems is slated to report its third-quarter results after the bell Wednesday, and analysts expect the company to report a profit of $0.24 per share, down from $0.38 a year ago, on revenue of $8.1 billion, according to Reuters Estimates.  The stock has lost 23.7% over the past 12 months.

In the near-term, the stock has moved to favoring a reversal trend, cutting back or reversing its evening performance in next-day regular session trade in six consecutive quarters.   Looking deeper into the performance data, shorts should be interested to know that Cisco has seen a negative post-bell earnings-driven trade in 14 of the 23 quarters we’ve tracked, and in nine of those downside evening moves the stock has followed that trade with a more aggressive negative run in the next day’s regular session.

On the long side, Cisco is about evenly mixed, recording nine earnings-driven upside evening moves in the 22 quarters we’ve followed - widening those gains four times the next day and recording five other events where the gains were cut back or reversed the following day. 

Nvidia (NVDA) is set to report its first-quarter results after the bell Thursday, and analysts expect the company to report a loss of $0.11 per share, down from a profit of $0.36 a year ago, on revenue of $502.6 million.  The stock has lost 42% over the past 12 months.

Traders should hold their positions if they are on the right side of the trade in the after-hours.  Nvidia strongly favors a widening pattern between its after-hours move and the next day session following an evening earnings event.  Shares have widened their next-day price movement in all of the last four sessions.  On February 10, the stock fell 2.8% in after-hours trading and widened that move the following regular session, ending down 12.6%.

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Earnings Play: Baidu and Akamai Pointing Toward Widening Moves

Added on April 24, 2009 by cslane - Comments (4) Posted in Most Recent Post Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

baiduInvestors will continue to hear earnings results from a number of companies this week including Starbucks (SBUX) and Motorola (MOT),  just to name a few. On Wednesday, investors will also get their first peak at how well the economy fared in the first-quarter, when advanced gross domestic product is released.

Baidu.com (BIDU) is due to report first-quarter results after the close on Monday. Analysts expect China’s top Internet search company to report earnings of $0.75 per share, up from $0.60 a year ago, on revenue of $115.2 million. Shares have gained 63% since the beginning of the year as advertising sales start to pick up. On April 17, the company it had seen a significant rise in advertising since late January, as business sentiment improved in the world’s third largest economy

Baidu is one for longs to watch as the stock has shown a strong tendency in the near-term to widen its next-day share move following its post-earnings share performance in the preceding evening session. It’s done so four out of the last four quarters MidnightTrader.com has tracked. Three out of four of those move were to the upside. On February 18, shares rose 0.7% in the after-hours and widened the next day, ending up 3.5%.

Akamai Technologies (AKAM) releases its first-quarter results after the close of trading Wednesday. Analysts expect the company to report earnings of $0.40 per share, down from $0.41 a year ago, on revenue of $208.3 million.

AKAM has recorded more aggressive next-day closing levels following 16 of its last 21 after-hours earnings events. In fact, the stock has seen wider next-day moves in 13 of its last 15 earnings periods and in the last four out of five quarters. On February 4, the stock rose 7.4% in after-hours action and widened its move the next regular session, ending up 18.1%.

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Bank of America, Microsoft, and IBM Continue Earnings Parade

Added on April 17, 2009 by cslane - Comments (2) Posted in The Week Ahead Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

bankamericaStocks ended their sixth straight week with gains, but a number of financial companies, including Bank of America (BAC) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) still have yet to report results. Aside from banks, technology companies will also dominate earnings this week as investors hear from IBM (IBM), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD).

Goldman Sachs (GS) and Wells Fargo (WFC) have eased some investors concerns after posting earnings improvements in the first-quarter, however, some of the optimism was reigned in last week after UBS AG (UBS) said it expects to report a first-quarter loss of nearly $1.75 billion and will cut 8,700 jobs worldwide by the end of next year. Citigroup (C) also reported better-than-expected first-quarter results Friday, though the company continues to take charges to reserve for consumer defaults.

On Monday, IBM reports its first-quarter results in after-hours trading, and analysts polled by Reuters expect a profit of $1.66, up 1.2% from a year ago, on revenue of $22.6 billion. The stock is down 16% over the past 12 months.

Investors trading into earnings should know that IBM favors a long-term reversal pattern in its session-to-session performance, crossing narrower next-day percentage closing levels following after-hours earnings events in 11 of the last 19. However, the near-term is mixed, with the stock widening once, narrowing once, and reversing twice its rafter-hours move in the following regular session. On January 20, the stock rose 4% in after-hours trading when IBM guided for higher 2009 earnings. The stock widened its move in the following trading session, ending up 11.5%.

Yahoo! (YHOO) is due with its first-quarter results after the close on Tuesday and is expected to report earnings of $0.08 per share, down 27% from a year ago, on revenue of $1.2 billion. Yahoo shares are down 50% over the past 12 months and are trading slightly above their 50-day moving average.

Investors trading into earnings should know that in the near-term, Yahoo is trending toward widening its after-hours move, doing so in two of the last four quarter. On January 27, the stocks rose 4.2% in after-hours trading after earnings beat the Street. The stock widened its move in the following regular session, ending up 7.9%.

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On Deck: GE’s Friday Surprise

Added on April 16, 2009 by editor - Comments (0) Posted in Earnings Trades, Most Recent Post Tags: , , , , , , ,

General Electric (GE) is due to report its Q1 results in the pre-market on Friday, April 17. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect the company to report a profit of $0.21 per share on revenue of $39 billion. While most of Wall Street has shied away from GE, and for good reason, the time has come for a rebound on the heels of an in-line or upside earnings surprise.

From a fundamental point of view, the company maintains a healthy cash position and increasing revenues from the energy infrastructure and technology infrastructure segments. In addition, the company has signed new contracts and expanded a manufacturing facility in China, improving margins on related products and expanding its foothold in a country likely to become an ever greater economic engine.

The GE Capital credit concerns have been overblown and investors have been stepping back into the stock, pushing it up from staggering lows in the 6’s recent to over $11. There is still time and room to run. With a health dividend yield of greater than 10% and the sector’s lowest P/E, most investors would be wise to get paid while waiting for the stock price to rise.

From a historical price reaction perspective, when it comes to pre-market earnings events GE tends to see follow through gains or losses from the pre-market to the regular session close. In other words, the stock tends to follow-through with the trend that develops ahead of the open.

While we anticipate a positive reaction to any in-line or above estimates results, extended-hours traders tend to be right on with GE. As history shows and from a risk/reward standpoint, its best to just go with the trend.

On Jan. 23, 2009, shares fell 6.1% in the pre-market session after the company reported earnings in line but missed with revenue. The loss fattened to 10.7% in regular trading later that day.

On Oct. 10, 2008, GE rose 0.5% in pre-market trade after posting Q3 results in line with Street estimates. The stock recorded a sharp rise in the regular session, soaring to a 13.1% gain in the Oct. 10 regular session.

On July 11, 2008, GE declined 0.5% in pre-market trade after meeting earnings expectations, beating on revenue, and backing its fiscal year view. The stock turned positive in the following regular session, eking just higher, up 0.07% by the closing bell.

On April 11, 2008, GE tumbled 11.5% in pre-market trade after missing Q1 expectations and setting its guidance below Street estimates. It added to its downside in the following regular session, losing 12.8% by the closing bell.

On Jan. 18, 2008, GE advanced 2.3% in pre-market trade after meeting Q4 expectations and maintaining its 2008 guidance largely in line with the Street view. The stock added to its upside in the following regular session, gaining 3.3% by the closing bell.me stock news and trading ideas FREE for 2 weeks. < Learn More >here.

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Earnings Update: GE, JPM

Added on April 16, 2009 by editor - Comments (3) Posted in Earnings Trades, Most Recent Post Tags: , , , , , , , ,

To follow up on my last post, there is an Interesting post on the Ticker Sense blog which provides a good look ahead at the earnings calendar. You can view a copy of the post here:

Important Upcoming Earnings Reports

Key earnings reports continue through the end of the month.  Below we highlight some of the more significant reports expected over the next several days.  Historically GOOG and ISRG are some of the more volatile names, and will likely create trading opportunities for those interested in the after hours.

The spotlight is likely to be on JPM and GE on Friday.
earnings

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Morning Notes: Intuitive Surgical Moving Higher on Earnings

Added on April 16, 2009 by editor - Comments (0) Posted in Earnings Trades, Most Recent Post Tags: , , , , ,

isrgIn the pre-market session this morning, Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) reported Q1 EPS of $1.02 per share, ex a $0.30 per share item, in line with Street estimates. Revs were $188.4 mln, below the analyst mean of $201 mln on Thomson Reuters.

While most investors are looking at the earnings results with an eye on consensus estimates and fundamental growth rates, etc. it’s more important to look at the market’s reaction to the earnings release and compare it to its reaction to similar news in the past. Don’t get lost in the numbers and keep it simple. Basically, forget everything you ever learned about earnings and look at the how the market perceives the news. In the case of ISRG the market tends to be on the right side following any earnings release with more room to go in the following days. Let history be your guide.

Going back over 4 years worth of quarterly earnings announcements, ISRG has seen wider follow-on regular session movement on the heels of 12 of its last 17 extended-hours quarterly reports. The near-term performance had been holding to a widening pattern as well as the stock has now added to its after-hours gains or losses by the close the following day in four of the last five quarters.

On Jan. 22, 2009, the stock fell 5% after ISRG met with earnings but misses with revenue. The loss was trimmed the next day to 2.8%.

On Oct. 16, 2008, the stock fell 0.4% as results topped the year-ago quarter but missed Street estimates. The loss swelled to 11.9% the next day.

On July 22, 2008, the stock jumped 11.7% in evening trading after beating the Street with Q2 results. The increase was a more robust 18.1% the next day.

On April 17, 2008, ISRG shed 9.7% in after-hours trade despite beating Q1 expectations. The stock added to its downside the following day, declining 17.2% by the closing bell on April 18.

On Jan. 31, 2008, the stock jumped 14.9% during evening trading after ISRG reported ahead of the Street with Q4 results. The gain swelled to 20.3% the next day.

It’s not too late for a long position ahead of the open in ISRG. History indicates more upside to go.

For real time earnings news and historical earnings reaction history get a 2 week FREE TRIAL to Earnings Notebook here.

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